{
  "abstract": "Arctic-breeding waterbirds depend on fat stores gained at stopover sites during spring migration, and climate change is altering the winds, food timing and wetland quality along their routes. We present a compact mathematical model of spring migration from a wintering area to an Arctic breeding site, built to test five hypotheses about how these changes act on migration energetics and reproduction. The model combines a fat-dependent flight equation with wind, a stopover module in which food availability follows the spring green wave, probabilistic route choice over a network of eight wetlands, and a reproductive module limited by fat, calcium and arrival time relative to snowmelt. Energetic outcomes are linked to population growth rate (λ) through a three-stage projection matrix. We simulated a generic goose-sized bird of about 2 kg under seven scenarios. Single perturbations (weaker tail-winds, an earlier spring, or degraded western wetlands) were buffered, reducing arrival probability by about 1 percentage point and λ by 1–2%. Combined, they reduced arrival probability from 0.99 to 0.79 and λ from 1.00 to 0.78, about five times the sum of the single effects. Degrading the western corridor shifted the mean initial heading by 15° and concentrated birds at a previously minor eastern site. Calcium-poor northern staging sites reduced reproduction by 20% without affecting arrival. Advancing departure by 10 days compensated for a spring up to 20 days earlier, whereas a 10% decline in fat deposition reduced expected reproduction by 15%. All parameters are assumed, so results are comparisons between scenarios rather than predictions.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Valeria Ciurcina"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f6tg7b97r9hjs.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.32942/x2gt3c",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "f6tg7b97r9hjs",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15450/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Environmental Sciences"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "Physical Sciences and Mathematics"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "birds migration goose equation dynamics modelling"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/object/15450/download/27648/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-05",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f6tg7b97r9hjs.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-06T12:20:43Z",
      "native_id": "15450",
      "source": "ecoevorxiv",
      "url": "https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15450/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:Environmental Sciences",
      "subfield": "environmental-science"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Energy landscapes, stopover networks and reproductive constraints: a mathematical framework in the Arctic bird migration under Climate Change",
  "title_text": "Energy landscapes, stopover networks and reproductive constraints: a mathematical framework in the Arctic bird migration under Climate Change",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T12:20:49Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/f6tg7b97r9hjs",
  "venue": "EcoEvoRxiv",
  "versions": []
}