{
  "abstract": "BackgroundCurrent HIV prevention strategies focus on targeting ‘at-risk’ individuals with sexual health education and HIV prevention medications such as PrEP. Despite these efforts, ~1.3 million new infections occur globally each year. We therefore asked whether it is possible to further stratify ‘at-risk’ individuals into high- and low-risk categories, enabling more targeted intervention toward those most vulnerable.MethodsTo explore this, we screened plasma samples from HIV-negative partners in serodiscordant couples in Zambia and Rwanda for hallmark inflammatory cytokines. We compared cytokine levels between individuals who remained uninfected and those who later seroconverted (pre-infected).ResultsAnalysis of plasma from 501 uninfected individuals and 91 pre-infected individuals identified several significantly elevated cytokines in pre-infected individuals with IL-7, ITAC, and IL-8 being the most significantTo assess whether these elevations were transient or chronic, we analyzed earlier pre-infection samples collected up to 18 months before estimated date of infection (EDI) in Zambia and up to 7 months pre-EDI in Rwanda. In Zambia, IL-7, ITAC, and IL-8 were significantly lower at the earlier time point, suggesting a transient increase prior to infection. No difference was observed in Rwanda, likely due to the shorter sampling interval, supporting the idea that these elevations occur within a limited window of time.To determine whether these diagnostic cytokines were elevated following infection, we analyzed longitudinal samples from pre-infection, early acute post-infection (0–3 months), and early-chronic post-infection (6–9 months). Identified biomarkers IL-7, IL-8 and ITAC showed a consistent decline following infection, with the most pronounced drop immediately following infection. Mixed-effects modelling quantified cytokine-specific longitudinal changes across pre-early and early-late post-infection intervals, confirming the univariable analyses.DiscussionOverall, we identified key plasma biomarkers that may help distinguish individuals at elevated risk of HIV acquisition which could inform more targeted prevention strategies.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": "Original Research",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 9,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Jake William Rhodes"
    },
    {
      "name": "Shabir Lakhi"
    },
    {
      "name": "Etienne Karita"
    },
    {
      "name": "William Kilembe"
    },
    {
      "name": "Mubiana Inambao"
    },
    {
      "name": "Julien Nyombayire"
    },
    {
      "name": "Jill Gilmour"
    },
    {
      "name": "Susan A. Allen"
    },
    {
      "name": "Eric Hunter"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fabxrefr00vwy.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.3389/fimmu.2026.1958647",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "fabxrefr00vwy",
  "issns": [
    "1664-3224"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2026.1958647",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "feed-journal",
      "biology/immunology"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": null,
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-11-04",
  "publisher": "Frontiers Media SA",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fabxrefr00vwy.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T06:20:39Z",
      "native_id": "10.3389/fimmu.2026.1958647",
      "source": "feed-frontiers",
      "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2026.1958647"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T12:21:26Z",
      "native_id": "10.3389/fimmu.2026.1958647",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2026.1958647/full"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "biology",
      "origin": "feed-journal:biology/immunology",
      "subfield": "immunology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Transient increases in inflammatory cytokines and chemokines are predictive of subsequent HIV-1 infection",
  "title_text": "Transient increases in inflammatory cytokines and chemokines are predictive of subsequent HIV-1 infection",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-06T00:21:18Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fabxrefr00vwy",
  "venue": "Frontiers in Immunology",
  "versions": []
}