{
  "abstract": "Objectives: To provide tuberculosis (TB) incidence estimates for different Latin American countries, evaluating the contribution to achieving poverty eradication.\n\nDesign: We developed a mathematical model of TB dynamics using ordinary differential equations. Using published data, we estimated TB incidence across various poverty scenarios.\n\nSetting: Latin American countries: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.\n\nInterventions: Our analysis included demographics and poverty data across three scenarios: (1) baseline, (2) increasing and (3) decreasing poverty levels.\n\nPrimary and secondary outcome measures: We projected trends in new TB notifications from 2020 to 2035 using a TB compartmental model, which incorporates the poverty effects with country-specific data from 2000 to 2019.\n\nResults: The forecasted trends of our poverty eradication scenario by 2030 show reductions in a range of 32.27% (95% CI 36.58% to 25.13%) to 48.56% (95% CI 54.15% to 42.75%) in the TB incidence in comparison with the baseline, with a total number of 516,132 (465,192 to 572,526) avoided TB notifications over the period. The increasing poverty scenario led to an incidence increase ranging from 20.02% (95% CI 5.16% to 35.42%) to 50.20% (95% CI 36.47% to 60.76%) in comparison with the baseline.\n\nConclusions: Achieving SDG1 of poverty eradication in Latin America by 2030, particularly through the enhancement and expansion of social protection programmes, could significantly contribute to the goals of the End TB Strategy and greatly reduce the tuberculosis burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil",
    "São Paulo State University (UNESP), Institute of Chemistry, Araraquara, Brazil",
    "Department of Statistics, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile",
    "Faculty of Population and Health Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, England, UK",
    "Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain"
  ],
  "article_type": "research article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 8,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Ana Paula Santin Bertoni"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        1
      ],
      "name": "Felipe Alves Rubio",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3428-5919"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "José Alejandro Ordoñez"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Rodrigo Volmir Rezende Anderle"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Priscila Fernanda Porto Scaff Gestal"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Delia Boccia"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Daniella Calvacanti"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0,
        4
      ],
      "name": "Davide Rasella"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fbwzeme5fysr1.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015",
  "fulltext_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13723821/",
  "id": "fbwzeme5fysr1",
  "issns": [
    "2044-6055",
    "2044-6055"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://bmjopen.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "1506"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "1724"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Original Research"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "Public Health"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2725|Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223992724",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": "PMC13723821",
  "pmid": "42946366",
  "published": "2026-10-27",
  "publisher": "BMJ",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fbwzeme5fysr1.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:19:44Z",
      "native_id": "10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://bmjopen.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T12:22:23Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13723821",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "heading:Public Health",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Contribution of achieving poverty eradication (Sustainable Development Goal 1) to the end tuberculosis strategy in Latin America: a multi-country mathematical modelling analysis",
  "title_text": "Contribution of achieving poverty eradication (Sustainable Development Goal 1) to the end tuberculosis strategy in Latin America: a multi-country mathematical modelling analysis",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-05T12:20:34Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fbwzeme5fysr1",
  "venue": "BMJ Open",
  "versions": []
}