{
  "abstract": "In mid-July 2026, numerous fast-burning wildfires affected western Ontario and northern Minnesota, resulting in extensive smoke across eastern North America. Here, we conduct a rapid attribution analysis of the 14–21 July smoke event, quantifying the change in wildfire smoke (WFS) PM2.5 concentrations and mortality compared to a counterfactual world without anthropogenic climate change (ACC). We find that ACC increased WFS PM2.5 concentrations by approximately three-fold. As a result, population exposure to regulatory exceedances of WFS PM2.5 concentrations (>35 µg/m3) amounted to 268 million person-days, of which 157 million are attributable to ACC. We estimate 770 excess deaths attributable to observed WFS PM2.5 exposure, a three-fold increase compared to the counterfactual scenario. This rapid impact-attribution assessment of WFS PM2.5-related mortality provides a methodological framework for quantifying the ACC contribution to other acute air pollution episodes globally.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Dmitri A. Kalashnikov"
    },
    {
      "name": "Emily L. Williams"
    },
    {
      "name": "John Abatzoglou"
    },
    {
      "name": "Cong Yin"
    },
    {
      "name": "Wenli Ni"
    },
    {
      "name": "Nicholas Nassikas"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fd30yykmm8g19.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.31223/x51z3h",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "fd30yykmm8g19",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15486/",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "bepress",
      "Physical Sciences and Mathematics"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "attribution"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "climate change"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "mortality"
    ],
    [
      "bepress",
      "wildfire smoke"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "2307|Air Quality and Health Impacts"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221640985",
  "pdf_url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/15486/download/27095/",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-13",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fd30yykmm8g19.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:46Z",
      "native_id": "15486",
      "source": "eartharxiv",
      "url": "https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15486/"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "bepress:climate change",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The July 2026 North American wildfire smoke event was three times deadlier due to climate change",
  "title_text": "The July 2026 North American wildfire smoke event was three times deadlier due to climate change",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:46Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fd30yykmm8g19",
  "venue": "EarthArXiv",
  "versions": []
}