{
  "abstract": "Precipitation extremes have increased globally in recent decades, consistent with a warming climate. We find that 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of heavy (≥99th percentile; F P≥99 ) precipitation events globally based on MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) observations from 1979 to 2025. This extends a long-term trend of ∼0.03%/decade in F P≥99 , with similar but more uncertain increases for the 99.9th percentile. Unlike prior high F P≥99 years, 2024’s record was more globally distributed and emerged from a distinct seasonal evolution. El Niño and rare concurrent multi-basin tropical ocean warmth drove elevated extremes early in the year, before lagged global tropospheric responses and long-term warming sustained and amplified extremes through boreal summer. Climate models indicate that years with 2024-level F P≥99 typically require either stronger El Niño forcing or concurrent multi-basin sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Diagnostic projections within constrained ensemble members suggest that ∼40% of the 2024 anomaly aligns with global mean temperatures and ∼20% with El Niño variability, with some of the remainder linked to basin-scale SST structure.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.",
    "Atmospheric, Earth, and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA."
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Chad W. Thackeray",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3757-9015"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Jesse Norris"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Alex Hall",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4973-8500"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Mark D. Zelinka",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-6570-5445"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Stephen Po-Chedley",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0390-238X"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fdatsydpd82fc.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "fdatsydpd82fc",
  "issns": [
    "2375-2548"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221142028",
  "pdf_url": null,
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-09",
  "publisher": "American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fdatsydpd82fc.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
      "native_id": "10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692",
      "source": "crossref",
      "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Climate variability and models",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024",
  "title_text": "Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:41Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fdatsydpd82fc",
  "venue": "Science Advances",
  "versions": []
}