{
  "abstract": "In 2011 Hagar & Sergioli proposed a new interpretation of objective probability in deterministic physics. On it, the probability of a physical state supervenes on the resources, energy over time, required to realize it from a given state, relative to the resources available (arXiv:1101.3521). The motivation for that paper was an objective alternative to QBism, the view that sees quantum probabilities as subjective degrees of belief. Here I apply this interpretation to a more practical subject matter: fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). Under the resource-bounded measure Hagar & Sergioli proposed, the threshold theorem becomes a claim about classification: it asserts that error-corrected logical states belong to the class of relatively cheaply realizable states, whose probability remains near 1 as the machine grows. The theorem originally derived this claim from a resource inventory that was partial, and left out four resources consumed by error correction: calibration of a drifting device, decoding within the correction cycle, coherence as a finite time budget, and entropy flush through fresh ancillas. These entered the original derivation at zero price. Here I translate the feasibility of FTQC into a measurable quantity, watts per decade of suppressed logical error (a decade, in the engineer's usage, being one factor of ten in the error rate). I then show that the published record already contains its first data points for this translation, and I state the two measurements that would settle the question empirically. The three-decade debate on FTQC, conducted so far as an exchange about noise-model assumptions, turns out to be, under this interpretation, a quantitative dispute about a single object: the resource-bounded objective probability of the target logical states.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2607.22276",
  "author_total": 1,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Amit Hagar"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fef93t1z8e130.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2607.22276",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "fef93t1z8e130",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.22276",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "quant-ph"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "1702|Quantum Computing Algorithms and Architecture"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7171422137",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.22276",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-21",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fef93t1z8e130.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:23:19Z",
      "native_id": "2607.22276",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.22276"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "physics",
      "origin": "arxiv:quant-ph",
      "subfield": "quantum"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The Threshold Theorem in Watts: Fault Tolerance as a Question About Objective Probability",
  "title_text": "The Threshold Theorem in Watts: Fault Tolerance as a Question About Objective Probability",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:23:19Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fef93t1z8e130",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}