{
  "abstract": "We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (CMIP7). The protocol requires ESMs to run in CO2-emission mode, with atmospheric CO2 a predicted variable. Forcing for the protocol consists solely of a constant emission of CO2, based on each model’s transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (TCRE) value, to give a common global mean warming rate of 2 °C per century. This positive emission experiment is started from the pre-industrial state of a given model. When the ramp-up run first exceeds a specified level of global warming (2 °C and 4 °C) relative to the model’s pre-industrial global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT), CO2 emissions are set to zero and the positive emission run is branched into a zero-emission run. The zero-emission runs continue for 300 years. At 50 years into each zero-emission run, CO2 emissions are set to the negative of the positive emission rate and the model run until GMSAT cools below the original pre-industrial value. Additionally, when the negative emission run started from global warming level (GWL) = 4 °C first drops below GWL = 2 °C, a zero-emission run is branched off this, completing the set of experiments. Using this protocol, we are able to control the rate of global warming and cooling across participating models. TIPMIP experiments will support a range of analyses, including; an assessment of abrupt/rapid Earth system change, the long-term response to zero CO2 emissions, the response to negative CO2 emissions, the efficacy of negative emissions in driving cooling, and the reversibility of Earth system change under a pathway of positive (warming), zero (stabilization), and negative (cooling) CO2 emissions.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "University of Leeds (Leeds, United Kingdom)",
    "CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France",
    "Earth Resilience Science Unit, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany",
    "Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Jena, Germany",
    "National Centre for Atmospheric Science (Leeds, United Kingdom)",
    "Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK",
    "School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK",
    "Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden",
    "Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden",
    "CICERO, Oslo, Norway",
    "MERGE, Lund University, Lund, Sweden",
    "National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark",
    "Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan",
    "Department of Earth System Modeling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany",
    "Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany",
    "Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, CEA, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France",
    "Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany",
    "Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany",
    "Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland",
    "Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland",
    "LMD-IPSL, CNRS, Ecole normale supérieure/PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France",
    "US National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA",
    "National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK",
    "Department of Integrative Earth System Science, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Jena, Germany",
    "Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden",
    "Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway",
    "Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway",
    "US National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA",
    "Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, USA",
    "NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA",
    "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, Princeton, USA",
    "Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), Université de Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux, France",
    "NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway",
    "Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK",
    "Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan",
    "CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia"
  ],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 41,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Colin Jones",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7221-8127"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Isaline Bossert",
      "orcid": "0009-0002-5449-159X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Donovan Dennis",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-5423-7703"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Hazel A. Jeffery",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-2553-9953"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5,
        6
      ],
      "name": "CHRIS D. JONES",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7141-9285"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        7,
        8
      ],
      "name": "Torben Koenigk",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-2051-743X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Sina Loriani",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-6660-960X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        9
      ],
      "name": "Benjamin Mark Sanderson",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-8635-4624"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Roland Séférian",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2571-2114"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        10,
        8
      ],
      "name": "Klaus Wyser",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9752-3454"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        11
      ],
      "name": "Shuting Yang",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0147-2056"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        12
      ],
      "name": "Manabu Abe",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4822-3321"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        13,
        14
      ],
      "name": "Sebastian Bathiany",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9904-1619"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        15
      ],
      "name": "Pascale Braconnot",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1852-9178"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        16,
        17
      ],
      "name": "Victor A. Brovkin",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-6420-3198"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        18,
        19
      ],
      "name": "Friedrich A. Burger",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7781-8498"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        20
      ],
      "name": "Patricia Cadule",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4830-5802"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        21
      ],
      "name": "Frederic S. Castruccio",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8397-7452"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        21
      ],
      "name": "Gökhan Danabasoglu",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4676-2732"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        22
      ],
      "name": "Andrea J. Dittus",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9598-6869"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        23,
        2,
        24
      ],
      "name": "Jonathan F. Donges",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5233-7703"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        25,
        26
      ],
      "name": "Friederike Fröb",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-2516-1682"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        18,
        19
      ],
      "name": "Thomas Frölicher"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        17
      ],
      "name": "Goran Georgievski",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4393-3647"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        11
      ],
      "name": "Chuncheng Guo",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-6276-6499"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        27
      ],
      "name": "Aixue Hu",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-1337-287X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        27
      ],
      "name": "Peter Lawrence"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        28,
        29
      ],
      "name": "Paul Lerner"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "José Licón-Saláiz",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-8733-2256"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        27
      ],
      "name": "Bette L. Otto‐Bliesner",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-1911-1598"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        28,
        29
      ],
      "name": "Anastasia Romanou",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-5241-4772"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        30
      ],
      "name": "Elena Shevliakova",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-4910-2166"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        18,
        19
      ],
      "name": "Yona Silvy",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-7082-7375"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        31
      ],
      "name": "Didier Swingedouw",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-0583-0850"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        32
      ],
      "name": "Jerry Fong Tjiputra",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-4600-2453"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Jeremy P. R. B. Walton",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7372-178X"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        33,
        5
      ],
      "name": "Wiltshire Andy"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2,
        3
      ],
      "name": "Ricarda Winkelmann",
      "orcid": "0000-0003-1248-3217"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Richard Wood",
      "orcid": "0000-0002-3960-9513"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        34
      ],
      "name": "Tokuta Yokohata",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-7346-7988"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        35
      ],
      "name": "Tilo Ziehn",
      "orcid": "0000-0001-9873-9775"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fg8v986hfkgry.bib",
  "cited_by": 10,
  "doi": "10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "fg8v986hfkgry",
  "issns": [
    "1991-959X",
    "1991-9603"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY",
  "licence_label": "CC BY",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2306|Climate variability and models"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7171743863",
  "pdf_url": "https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/6941/2026/gmd-19-6941-2026.pdf",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-07-29",
  "publisher": "Copernicus Publications",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fg8v986hfkgry.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-11-04T13:21:16Z",
      "native_id": "W7171743863",
      "source": "openalex",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "earth",
      "origin": "openalex:2306|Climate variability and models",
      "subfield": "climate"
    }
  ],
  "title": "The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1",
  "title_text": "The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-11-08T13:20:54Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fg8v986hfkgry",
  "venue": "Geoscientific model development",
  "versions": []
}