{
  "abstract": "Previous studies have shown a mismatch between the simulated rate of asteroids impacting the Earth and the observed rate, posing an important problem for planetary defense. Extending this analysis to other planets offers a new opportunity to examine minor body populations and impactor models. We present a unified simulation framework that estimates intrinsic $D\\gtrsim10$~m impactor rates on the eight planets and the Moon. We construct size-calibrated source populations of Near Earth Objects (NEOs), Main Belt Asteroids (MBAs), Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), Centaurs, and scattering trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), and propagate them with a 300-year $N$-body simulation. To avoid relying on black-box-like collision flags, we identify close encounters and estimate impact rates in two complementary ways: a direct count of realized impactors from object-level minimum-distance calculation and a collision expectation based on population-level impact parameter statistics. We predict over 300 years there will be $6.0^{+3.8}_{-2.7}$ impactors on Venus (all NEOs), $10.0^{+11.3}_{-4.9}$ on Earth (NEOs and JFCs), $\\sim$$2981^{+481}_{-469}$ on Jupiter (mainly MBAs and JFCs), $1228^{+2759}_{-1017}$ on Saturn (mainly Centaurs), and none on the remaining planets with the $1σ$ upper limits spanning $<1.8$ (inner planets) to $<1\\times10^{8}$ (outer planets; weak constraint). Jupiter uniquely receives both fast unbound impactors ($>50\\, \\mathrm{km\\,s^{-1}}$) and slower bound ones reaching down to $\\sim$$20\\,\\mathrm{km\\,s^{-1}}$. In a companion paper, we compare our predictions with observations and test whether the gap extends across the Solar System and whether current telescopes can observe these collisions.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": null,
  "arxiv": "2609.22042",
  "author_total": 2,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "Qifeng Cheng"
    },
    {
      "name": "Daniel Scolnic"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fhw1vmr3x0hh3.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.48550/arxiv.2609.22042",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "fhw1vmr3x0hh3",
  "issns": [],
  "landing_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.22042",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "LicenseRef-arXiv-nonexclusive-1.0",
  "licence_label": "arXiv licence",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
  "metadata_licence": "CC0-1.0",
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "arxiv",
      "astro-ph.EP"
    ],
    [
      "openalex",
      "3103|Astro and Planetary Science"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7213947625",
  "pdf_url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.22042",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-09-18",
  "publisher": null,
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fhw1vmr3x0hh3.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:23:03Z",
      "native_id": "2609.22042",
      "source": "arxiv",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.22042"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "astronomy",
      "origin": "arxiv:astro-ph.EP",
      "subfield": "planetary"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Asteroids Impacting the Solar System Planets and the Moon. I. Collision Rates from N-body Simulations",
  "title_text": "Asteroids Impacting the Solar System Planets and the Moon. I. Collision Rates from N-body Simulations",
  "type": "preprint",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:23:03Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fhw1vmr3x0hh3",
  "venue": "arXiv",
  "versions": []
}