{
  "abstract": "Background: This study examined the association between physical inactivity, body mass index (BMI), and metabolic equivalent of task (MET), and estimated the potential impact of increased physical activity on non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in Spain by 2030.\n\nMethods: An ecological analysis was conducted using aggregated data from the European Health Interview Survey in Spain, Waves 2 (n = 22,842) and 3 (n = 22,072). Physical inactivity (as a proportion) was modelled using beta regression with a logit link function. Explanatory variables included sex, age group, BMI, MET levels, and calendar year. The WHO Preventable Risk Integrated Model (PRIME) was used to estimate NCD mortality under a counterfactual scenario of a 15% increase in MET-hours/week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and a 15% relative reduction in inactivity prevalence. Uncertainty intervals (UI) were derived from 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations.\n\nResults: Physical inactivity increased markedly in older adults, with lower levels observed in males (β = −0.32, p < 0.001). At the population level, higher BMI was associated with increased physical inactivity (β = 0.16, p < 0.001), while higher MET levels were associated with lower inactivity (β = −0.02, p < 0.001). A slight overall decline in inactivity over time was observed (β = −0.05, p < 0.001). If trends persist, 34.7% of adults are expected to be physically inactive by 2030. Under the counterfactual scenario, this would fall to 29.5%, with average activity levels among active individuals increasing from 60.1 (SD 41.7) to 69.1 (SD 47.9) MET-hours/week. These changes are associated with an estimated 1,859 prevented premature deaths (95% UI: 1,644–2,083), and 9,596 prevented NCD deaths (95% UI: 8,400–10,791), representing 4.9% of total NCD mortality across all ages.\n\nConclusions: Physical inactivity disproportionately affects older adults, and increased physical activity at the population level is associated with lower NCD-related mortality.\n\nKey messages: • Increased physical activity may contribute to lowering the NCD burden.\n\n• Promoting population-level increases in physical activity across the life course is important, particularly in ageing populations.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [],
  "article_type": "abstract",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 5,
  "authors": [
    {
      "name": "ANA Muhlis"
    },
    {
      "name": "O Varga"
    },
    {
      "name": "N Mahrouseh"
    },
    {
      "name": "G Chamouni"
    },
    {
      "name": "GL Tarek"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fp3d0bsjxka14.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.855",
  "fulltext_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13697740/",
  "id": "fp3d0bsjxka14",
  "issns": [
    "1101-1262",
    "1464-360X"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.855",
  "language": "en",
  "licence": "CC-BY-NC-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY-NC 4.0",
  "licence_source": "article",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "heading",
      "5. Poster Walks"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/MED00860"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/SOC01210"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "AcademicSubjects/SOC02610"
    ],
    [
      "heading",
      "R.4. Poster Walk: Chronic disease, multimorbidity and healthy ageing"
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    [
      "openalex",
      "2737|Physical Activity and Health"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7223673093",
  "pdf_url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13697740/pdf/?tool=EBI",
  "pmcid": "PMC13697740",
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-01",
  "publisher": "Oxford University Press",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fp3d0bsjxka14.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:18:44Z",
      "native_id": "PMC13697740",
      "source": "pmc",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.855"
    },
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:21:25Z",
      "native_id": "PMC:PMC13697740",
      "source": "europepmc",
      "url": "https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13697740"
    }
  ],
  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "openalex:2737|Physical Activity and Health",
      "subfield": "physiology"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Physical inactivity, ageing, and the impact on NCD burden in Spain by 2030: Macrosimulation study",
  "title_text": "Physical inactivity, ageing, and the impact on NCD burden in Spain by 2030: Macrosimulation study",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:34:43Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fp3d0bsjxka14",
  "venue": "The European Journal of Public Health",
  "versions": []
}