{
  "abstract": "Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious killer, with high burden concentrated in China and wider Central Asia. Integrated long-term trend analysis and forecasting for this region are scarce. We aimed to quantify TB burden trends, drivers, inequalities, and 2050 projections across China and wider Central Asia (1990–2023). Methods: We used Global Burden of Disease 2023 data to estimate age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint, age-period-cohort, decomposition, and Bayesian APC models were applied. Socioeconomic inequalities were assessed via Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and Concentration Index. Results: China achieved steep declines in age-standardized mortality (−94.2%) and DALYs (−92.4%), driven by epidemiological gains offsetting population growth and aging. Central Asia improved moderately but heterogeneously; population growth diluted gains, with Tajikistan showing rising absolute burden. TB burden correlated negatively with SDI; socioeconomic inequality fell markedly, especially for mortality (−69.0%), but persisted among low-SDI groups. By 2050, model projections suggest that mortality targets may be achievable under current trends, although uncertainty remains substantial. Conclusions: China has undergone a substantial TB epidemiological transition characterized by marked declines in mortality and DALYs. Targeted interventions-latent TB treatment in China, accelerated case finding and cross-border collaboration in Central Asia-and strengthened regional cooperation are critical to advance regional TB elimination.",
  "abstract_shown": true,
  "affiliations": [
    "State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Treatment of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China",
    "Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Center, People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China",
    "Joint Key Laboratory for International Cooperation on Major Diseases in Central Asia, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China",
    "College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China",
    "Institute of Medical Engineering Interdisciplinary Research, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China",
    "Clinical Medicine Research Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China"
  ],
  "article_type": "Research Article",
  "arxiv": null,
  "author_total": 6,
  "authors": [
    {
      "affs": [
        0
      ],
      "name": "Bahetibieke Tuohetaerbaike"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        1
      ],
      "name": "Dina Mulali"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        2
      ],
      "name": "Mehdi Borhani"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        3
      ],
      "name": "Kai Wang"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        4
      ],
      "name": "Wenbao Zhang"
    },
    {
      "affs": [
        5
      ],
      "name": "Hao Wen"
    }
  ],
  "bibtex": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fx9j6c2bmybhm.bib",
  "cited_by": 0,
  "doi": "10.1371/journal.pone.0358349",
  "fulltext_url": null,
  "id": "fx9j6c2bmybhm",
  "issns": [
    "1932-6203"
  ],
  "landing_url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0358349",
  "language": null,
  "licence": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "licence_label": "CC BY 4.0",
  "licence_source": "journal",
  "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "metadata_licence": null,
  "native_subjects": [
    [
      "openalex",
      "2725|Tuberculosis Research and Epidemiology"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Biology and life sciences/Population biology/Population metrics/Population growth"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Medicine and health sciences/Epidemiology"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Medicine and health sciences/Epidemiology/Epidemiology of aging"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Medicine and health sciences/Medical conditions/Infectious diseases/Bacterial diseases/Tuberculosis"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Medicine and health sciences/Medical conditions/Tropical diseases/Tuberculosis"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/Medicine and health sciences/Public and occupational health/Global health"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/People and places/Geographical locations/Asia"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/People and places/Geographical locations/Asia/China"
    ],
    [
      "plos",
      "/People and places/Geographical locations/Asia/Tajikistan"
    ]
  ],
  "openalex": "W7221107863",
  "pdf_url": "https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0358349&type=printable",
  "pmcid": null,
  "pmid": null,
  "published": "2026-10-09",
  "publisher": "Public Library of Science",
  "ris": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fx9j6c2bmybhm.ris",
  "sources": [
    {
      "first_seen": "2026-10-30T12:17:30Z",
      "native_id": "10.1371/journal.pone.0358349",
      "source": "plos",
      "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0358349"
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  "subjects": [
    {
      "field": "medicine",
      "origin": "plos:epidemiology",
      "subfield": "epidemiology-public-health"
    }
  ],
  "title": "Tuberculosis disease burden trends, drivers, and projections to 2050 in China and the wider Central Asian region, 1990–2023",
  "title_text": "Tuberculosis disease burden trends, drivers, and projections to 2050 in China and the wider Central Asian region, 1990–2023",
  "type": "peer-reviewed",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-30T12:17:30Z",
  "url": "https://research.draconitic.com/paper/fx9j6c2bmybhm",
  "venue": "PLOS One",
  "versions": []
}