When digital-government indicators predict falling carbon intensity: Evidence from 193 countries, 2003–2024
- 1Dokuz Eylül University, Tınaztepe Campus, Faculty of Business, Room 122/B, İzmir, 35390, Türkiye
Abstract
Whether improvements in the United Nations E-Government Development Index predict reductions in national carbon intensity may depend on the political character of the state. This study develops the concept of politically conditioned administrative reach using the V-Dem indices for electoral democracy, rule of law, and public administration, addressing a question examined only on average. In up to 193 countries, 2003 to 2024, curvature is associated with electoral democracy. Where political constraint is lower the decline rests on emissions, not output, and only there survives country trends. Where the inverted-U is present, the decline is concentrated in the directly governable power, energy-industry and heavy-manufacturing sectors, with nearly three times the curvature of transport and buildings. This contrast is observed in both regime groups; however, it loses statistical significance after first-wave sector-share weighting among less constrained states. When applying a separate trend for each country-sector, the effect remains only among more constrained states. Along each country's path the median change is −5.99 percent, and at median index values −5.51 percent, not distinguishable from zero. A scope test on tax collection bounds a parallel pattern at 0.62 percentage points of GDP under lower constraint and 0.95 under higher. The conditioning is not independent of resource dependence and does not survive alternative wave effects, the rents window, consumption accounting, dropping the trade control, or common support. After controlling for a country-specific linear trend, neither the inverted-U relationship nor its conditional effects are evident. Only a smaller decline remains evident at higher levels of digital-government.
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BibTeX
@article{cagle2026when,
title = {{When digital-government indicators predict falling carbon intensity: Evidence from 193 countries, 2003–2024}},
author = {Melissa Nihal Cagle},
journal = {Environmental and Sustainability Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.indic.2026.101577},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101577},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - When digital-government indicators predict falling carbon intensity: Evidence from 193 countries, 2003–2024
AU - Melissa Nihal Cagle
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101577
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2026.101577
AB - Whether improvements in the United Nations E-Government Development Index predict reductions in national carbon intensity may depend on the political character of the state. This study develops the concept of politically conditioned administrative reach using the V-Dem indices for electoral democracy, rule of law, and public administration, addressing a question examined only on average. In up to 193 countries, 2003 to 2024, curvature is associated with electoral democracy. Where political constraint is lower the decline rests on emissions, not output, and only there survives country trends. Where the inverted-U is present, the decline is concentrated in the directly governable power, energy-industry and heavy-manufacturing sectors, with nearly three times the curvature of transport and buildings. This contrast is observed in both regime groups; however, it loses statistical significance after first-wave sector-share weighting among less constrained states. When applying a separate trend for each country-sector, the effect remains only among more constrained states. Along each country's path the median change is −5.99 percent, and at median index values −5.51 percent, not distinguishable from zero. A scope test on tax collection bounds a parallel pattern at 0.62 percentage points of GDP under lower constraint and 0.95 under higher. The conditioning is not independent of resource dependence and does not survive alternative wave effects, the rents window, consumption accounting, dropping the trade control, or common support. After controlling for a country-specific linear trend, neither the inverted-U relationship nor its conditional effects are evident. Only a smaller decline remains evident at higher levels of digital-government.
SN - 2665-9727
ER -