Multivariate SWAT streamflow and surface water storage calibration enables Upper Mississippi River Basin wetland change scenarios
4 affiliations
- 1U.S. Geological Survey, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, PO Box 25046, MS 980, Denver Federal Center, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA
- 2Office of Applied Science and Environmental Solutions, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 26 W. Martin Luther King Dr., Cincinnati, Ohio, 45268, USA
- 3Office of Wetlands, Oceans, and Watersheds, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 26 W. Martin Luther King Dr., Cincinnati, Ohio, 45268, USA
- 4Lane Ecological Advisory LLC, 700 Bluestem Ct, Pewaukee, WI, 53072
Abstract
Surface water storage (e.g., wetlands, lakes) is not typically considered in hydrological model calibrations. We tested a multivariate calibration process, incorporating Sentinel-1 and -2 surface water storage, for a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model across the 0.5 million km 2 Upper Mississippi River Basin. While 19% of the 2000 parameter sets adequately simulated discharge (Kling-Gupta efficiency >0.5), only 5% also adequately simulated surface water storage (mean absolute error <2 m), reducing model output uncertainty. Using the best calibrated model, we found that changes in surface water storage capacity most strongly affected discharge during the first annual peak flow (i.e., floods), when storage was filling. Increases in upstream surface water storage capacity resulted in projected decreases in peak flow and flashiness, with changes persisting downstream to the watershed outlet. Our findings demonstrate the importance of surface water storage in multivariate model calibration processes to inform river discharge and flood impact predictions.
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BibTeX
@article{dolan2026multivariate,
title = {{Multivariate SWAT streamflow and surface water storage calibration enables Upper Mississippi River Basin wetland change scenarios}},
author = {Wayana Dolan and Melanie K. Vanderhoof and Heather Golden and Jay Christensen and Charles Lane and Grey Evenson},
journal = {Environmental modelling \& software : with environment data news},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107133},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107133},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Multivariate SWAT streamflow and surface water storage calibration enables Upper Mississippi River Basin wetland change scenarios
AU - Wayana Dolan
AU - Melanie K. Vanderhoof
AU - Heather Golden
AU - Jay Christensen
AU - Charles Lane
AU - Grey Evenson
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/06
JO - Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107133
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.107133
AB - Surface water storage (e.g., wetlands, lakes) is not typically considered in hydrological model calibrations. We tested a multivariate calibration process, incorporating Sentinel-1 and -2 surface water storage, for a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model across the 0.5 million km 2 Upper Mississippi River Basin. While 19% of the 2000 parameter sets adequately simulated discharge (Kling-Gupta efficiency >0.5), only 5% also adequately simulated surface water storage (mean absolute error <2 m), reducing model output uncertainty. Using the best calibrated model, we found that changes in surface water storage capacity most strongly affected discharge during the first annual peak flow (i.e., floods), when storage was filling. Increases in upstream surface water storage capacity resulted in projected decreases in peak flow and flashiness, with changes persisting downstream to the watershed outlet. Our findings demonstrate the importance of surface water storage in multivariate model calibration processes to inform river discharge and flood impact predictions.
SN - 1364-8152
SN - 1873-6726
ER -