TPCdesign: A guide to designing informative thermal performance experiments
- 1Cornell University
Abstract
1. Thermal performance curves (TPCs) are widely used to quantify temperature dependence of biological traits, but estimating them requires experiments across multiple temperatures. Because these experiments can be costly, researchers must balance the number and placement of temperature treatments against replication within treatments. Evenly spaced temperatures are a common default, but may allocate effort inefficiently when thermal responses are nonlinear or strongly asymmetric. 2. We developed TPCdesign, an R package for planning temperature-trait experiments. TPCdesign uses a pseudo-Bayesian (robust) D-optimal experimental design to identify sets of temperatures expected to provide the most information about a TPC, while allowing users to incorporate prior knowledge of thermal limits and curve shape, uncertainty in that knowledge, available numbers of treatments, and practical restrictions on temperature spacing. 3. Using simulation-based worked examples, we show that optimized designs can recover TPCs more accurately than evenly spaced designs, particularly for asymmetric curves and when the number of available temperature treatments is modest. Optimization primarily improves resolution of regions where performance changes rapidly and can substantially improve estimation of upper thermal limits while retaining information across the rest of the curve. 4. TPCdesign provides a practical framework for allocating limited experimental resources according to the biological response researchers seek to estimate. Rather than prescribing a universal set of temperatures, it allows experimental designs to reflect existing biological knowledge, uncertainty, and logistical constraints, improving the information gained from costly thermal performance experiments.
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BibTeX
@misc{lyberger2026tpcdesign,
title = {{TPCdesign: A guide to designing informative thermal performance experiments}},
author = {K. Lyberger and L. A. Nell and K. A. Paaijmans},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.29.755419},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.29.755419v1},
note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - TPCdesign: A guide to designing informative thermal performance experiments
AU - K. Lyberger
AU - L. A. Nell
AU - K. A. Paaijmans
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/29
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.29.755419
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.29.755419v1
AB - 1. Thermal performance curves (TPCs) are widely used to quantify temperature dependence of biological traits, but estimating them requires experiments across multiple temperatures. Because these experiments can be costly, researchers must balance the number and placement of temperature treatments against replication within treatments. Evenly spaced temperatures are a common default, but may allocate effort inefficiently when thermal responses are nonlinear or strongly asymmetric. 2. We developed TPCdesign, an R package for planning temperature-trait experiments. TPCdesign uses a pseudo-Bayesian (robust) D-optimal experimental design to identify sets of temperatures expected to provide the most information about a TPC, while allowing users to incorporate prior knowledge of thermal limits and curve shape, uncertainty in that knowledge, available numbers of treatments, and practical restrictions on temperature spacing. 3. Using simulation-based worked examples, we show that optimized designs can recover TPCs more accurately than evenly spaced designs, particularly for asymmetric curves and when the number of available temperature treatments is modest. Optimization primarily improves resolution of regions where performance changes rapidly and can substantially improve estimation of upper thermal limits while retaining information across the rest of the curve. 4. TPCdesign provides a practical framework for allocating limited experimental resources according to the biological response researchers seek to estimate. Rather than prescribing a universal set of temperatures, it allows experimental designs to reflect existing biological knowledge, uncertainty, and logistical constraints, improving the information gained from costly thermal performance experiments.
ER -