Population-level correlations in Bayesian statistics: an illustrative model for gravitational-wave astronomy
Abstract
With increasingly large numbers of gravitational-wave events, population inference is now beginning to move beyond predictions of marginal distributions and to probe correlations between compact-binary parameters such as masses, spins, and redshifts. These correlations have strong constraining power for both astrophysics and tests of general relativity. In this paper, we present an idealized analytical model to study the interplay between single-event correlations, systematic biases, and population-level correlations. With this, we investigate the potential emergence of false-positive measurements of population-level correlations. We quantify how the presence of correlations at the single-event level between a pair of parameters increases the uncertainty of population-level correlations for those parameters, potentially obscuring the true underlying population correlation if present. We also find that if waveform systematics lead to biases that are correlated across the catalog (which is likely, because certain regions of the parameter space are more difficult to model), this can be effectively absorbed by a population analysis that targets correlations and can be misinterpreted as such. This simple Gaussian-based model may serve as a broad compass for future, more detailed explorations.
Related
- The Promise of Gravitational-Wave Astronomy
- Latin hypercube sampling to reduce the variance in Monte Carlo integration: a practical guide and an application to gravitational-wave astronomy
- BilbyFlow: user-friendly neural posterior estimation for gravitational-wave astronomy
- gwBenchmarks: Stress-Testing LLM Agents on High-Precision Gravitational Wave Astronomy
- Ultra-High-Resolution Astronomy with the Solar Gravitational Lens
BibTeX
@misc{owen2026populationlevel,
title = {{Population-level correlations in Bayesian statistics: an illustrative model for gravitational-wave astronomy}},
author = {Caroline B. Owen and Alexandre Toubiana and Davide Gerosa},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2606.21076},
eprint = {2606.21076},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.21076},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Population-level correlations in Bayesian statistics: an illustrative model for gravitational-wave astronomy
AU - Caroline B. Owen
AU - Alexandre Toubiana
AU - Davide Gerosa
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/26
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2606.21076
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.21076
AB - With increasingly large numbers of gravitational-wave events, population inference is now beginning to move beyond predictions of marginal distributions and to probe correlations between compact-binary parameters such as masses, spins, and redshifts. These correlations have strong constraining power for both astrophysics and tests of general relativity. In this paper, we present an idealized analytical model to study the interplay between single-event correlations, systematic biases, and population-level correlations. With this, we investigate the potential emergence of false-positive measurements of population-level correlations. We quantify how the presence of correlations at the single-event level between a pair of parameters increases the uncertainty of population-level correlations for those parameters, potentially obscuring the true underlying population correlation if present. We also find that if waveform systematics lead to biases that are correlated across the catalog (which is likely, because certain regions of the parameter space are more difficult to model), this can be effectively absorbed by a population analysis that targets correlations and can be misinterpreted as such. This simple Gaussian-based model may serve as a broad compass for future, more detailed explorations.
ER -