Economic Warfare after the Embargo: Private Capital, Strategic Infrastructure and the Democratisation of Hostile Power
- 1Independent researcher, Geneva, Switzerland
Abstract
Economic warfare is still too often described by reference to embargo, blockade, tariff and the deliberate exhaustion of a national treasury. Each remains important, but the definition belongs to an age in which the State ordinarily possessed the machinery required to make its economic choice strategically decisive. That factual monopoly has gone. A private company may now restore communications to a belligerent within hours, withhold coverage over an intended theatre, sell persistent satellite observation purchased by public subscription, or place cloud, data and machine decision systems between a weapon and the State which employs it. The capital required to influence war is no longer always public; the decision is no longer always ministerial; the resulting danger is nonetheless borne by citizens who never voted for it.
This paper uses the provision of Starlink communications and ICEYE synthetic-aperture radar capability to Ukraine as the principal, but not exclusive, case study. It finds that Starlink was activated on 26 February 2022 in response to a direct public request by a Ukrainian minister, before the later United States procurement and Department of Defense arrangements which regularised portions of the service. That speed was of immense practical value. It also exposed the constitutional problem: a private controller of strategic infrastructure acquired the practical capacity both to enter and to delimit a war, whilst governments, soldiers and civilians became dependent upon a service whose first legal foundation lay in ownership and contract.
The paper does not accept that Ukraine's absence from NATO deprived other States of a right to assist it. Article 51 of the United Nations Charter recognises collective self-defence, and the law does not require a pre-existing mutual-defence treaty where the victim State declares an armed attack and requests assistance. Nor does the presence of Russian-speaking or self-identifying Russian communities within Ukraine create a Russian title to Ukrainian territory or an unrestricted right of forcible protection. Russia advanced arguments of individual and collective self-defence; those arguments must be stated fairly, particularly against the West's contested precedents in Kosovo, Iraq, Libya and Syria, but comparison is not legal equivalence and hypocrisy does not repeal article 2(4).
The comparison nevertheless matters. Repeated resort to elastic doctrines, proxy support and private infrastructure makes restraint less credible when the same methods return against Western forces. The paper calls this the reciprocity trap. It proposes a functional definition of private economic participation in hostilities; advance public control over systemically important dual-use services; personal and corporate duties for strategic infrastructure controllers; compensation and indemnity rules preventing the private socialisation of retaliatory risk; and a mirror-image legality assessment requiring Ministers to state whether they would accept the asserted rule if used by an adversary. A keyboard, satellite link or privately funded sensor may be a weapon where its function and effects are equivalent to one. Law which refuses to see the function will regulate the nineteenth-century instrument and leave the twenty-first-century war to private discretion.
Publication edition, revised October 2026; not yet peer reviewed.
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BibTeX
@misc{farmer2026economic,
title = {{Economic Warfare after the Embargo: Private Capital, Strategic Infrastructure and the Democratisation of Hostile Power}},
author = {Christopher I. V. Farmer},
howpublished = {Zenodo},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23462120},
url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23462120},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Economic Warfare after the Embargo: Private Capital, Strategic Infrastructure and the Democratisation of Hostile Power
AU - Christopher I. V. Farmer
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/19
PB - Zenodo
DO - 10.5281/zenodo.23462120
UR - https://zenodo.org/records/23462120
AB - Economic warfare is still too often described by reference to embargo, blockade, tariff and the deliberate exhaustion of a national treasury. Each remains important, but the definition belongs to an age in which the State ordinarily possessed the machinery required to make its economic choice strategically decisive. That factual monopoly has gone. A private company may now restore communications to a belligerent within hours, withhold coverage over an intended theatre, sell persistent satellite observation purchased by public subscription, or place cloud, data and machine decision systems between a weapon and the State which employs it. The capital required to influence war is no longer always public; the decision is no longer always ministerial; the resulting danger is nonetheless borne by citizens who never voted for it. This paper uses the provision of Starlink communications and ICEYE synthetic-aperture radar capability to Ukraine as the principal, but not exclusive, case study. It finds that Starlink was activated on 26 February 2022 in response to a direct public request by a Ukrainian minister, before the later United States procurement and Department of Defense arrangements which regularised portions of the service. That speed was of immense practical value. It also exposed the constitutional problem: a private controller of strategic infrastructure acquired the practical capacity both to enter and to delimit a war, whilst governments, soldiers and civilians became dependent upon a service whose first legal foundation lay in ownership and contract. The paper does not accept that Ukraine's absence from NATO deprived other States of a right to assist it. Article 51 of the United Nations Charter recognises collective self-defence, and the law does not require a pre-existing mutual-defence treaty where the victim State declares an armed attack and requests assistance. Nor does the presence of Russian-speaking or self-identifying Russian communities within Ukraine create a Russian title to Ukrainian territory or an unrestricted right of forcible protection. Russia advanced arguments of individual and collective self-defence; those arguments must be stated fairly, particularly against the West's contested precedents in Kosovo, Iraq, Libya and Syria, but comparison is not legal equivalence and hypocrisy does not repeal article 2(4). The comparison nevertheless matters. Repeated resort to elastic doctrines, proxy support and private infrastructure makes restraint less credible when the same methods return against Western forces. The paper calls this the reciprocity trap. It proposes a functional definition of private economic participation in hostilities; advance public control over systemically important dual-use services; personal and corporate duties for strategic infrastructure controllers; compensation and indemnity rules preventing the private socialisation of retaliatory risk; and a mirror-image legality assessment requiring Ministers to state whether they would accept the asserted rule if used by an adversary. A keyboard, satellite link or privately funded sensor may be a weapon where its function and effects are equivalent to one. Law which refuses to see the function will regulate the nineteenth-century instrument and leave the twenty-first-century war to private discretion. Publication edition, revised October 2026; not yet peer reviewed.
ER -