A probabilistic framework reveals life course heterogeneity in global diet and healthy longevity associations.
5 affiliations
- 1Department of Hematology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
- 2School of Nursing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
- 3Department of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
- 4School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
- 5Research Center for Lifespan Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Abstract
Introduction
Conventional dietary adherence scores may limit cross-population comparability and allow strong components to offset marked shortfalls. We developed a probabilistic framework to place established dietary patterns on a common scale while retaining information on limiting components.Methods
We constructed the Dietary Matching Index (DMI) for eight dietary patterns using age-specific and sex-specific dietary estimates from 185 countries from 1990 to 2018. Parameters were selected using outcome-blind sensitivity analyses. Construct validity was assessed using global dietary data and six harmonised individual-level dietary datasets. Spatial clustering was evaluated using global and local Moran's I. Associations with health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) were estimated using geographically and temporally weighted regression models adjusted for sex and socioeconomic and ecological covariates.Results
DMI rankings were robust to calibration choices and Monte Carlo resampling. Across joint parameter settings, minimum Spearman correlations with baseline rankings ranged from 0.971 to 0.993, and Spearman correlations between the 250-draw and 500-draw estimates were 1.00 for all eight patterns. Component-level analyses reproduced the intended structure of the original dietary patterns, and individual-level gradients were consistent across six validation datasets. Dietary alignment varied substantially across countries and showed persistent geographic clustering. DMI-based models showed comparable or modestly better fit than conventional-score models. Associations with HALE were modest and varied by age and region. The largest positive pooled association was 0.17 additional HALE years for a one-standard-deviation higher Mediterranean-style DMI in ages 2-19 years (95% uncertainty interval 0.08 to 0.22). Between-country heterogeneity was greatest in midlife, with I² exceeding 50% for most patterns.Conclusions
DMI provides a common probabilistic scale for comparing dietary patterns and identifying limiting components. Dietary alignment showed persistent geographic structure, while associations with HALE varied by age and region. These ecological findings may support dietary surveillance and prioritisation, but causal interpretation requires evidence from longitudinal or intervention studies.
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BibTeX
@article{pan2026probabilistic,
title = {{A probabilistic framework reveals life course heterogeneity in global diet and healthy longevity associations.}},
author = {Yuzhe Pan and Nan Zhang and Xiqin Tong and Guopeng Chen and Xinqi Li and Jinxian Wu and Jiamin Fang and Duantengchuan Li and Liutao Wu and Shuang Peng and Qian Liu and Fuling Zhou},
journal = {BMJ public health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1136/bmjph-2026-005263},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42948240},
note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A probabilistic framework reveals life course heterogeneity in global diet and healthy longevity associations.
AU - Yuzhe Pan
AU - Nan Zhang
AU - Xiqin Tong
AU - Guopeng Chen
AU - Xinqi Li
AU - Jinxian Wu
AU - Jiamin Fang
AU - Duantengchuan Li
AU - Liutao Wu
AU - Shuang Peng
AU - Qian Liu
AU - Fuling Zhou
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/16
JO - BMJ public health
DO - 10.1136/bmjph-2026-005263
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42948240
AB - Introduction Conventional dietary adherence scores may limit cross-population comparability and allow strong components to offset marked shortfalls. We developed a probabilistic framework to place established dietary patterns on a common scale while retaining information on limiting components.Methods We constructed the Dietary Matching Index (DMI) for eight dietary patterns using age-specific and sex-specific dietary estimates from 185 countries from 1990 to 2018. Parameters were selected using outcome-blind sensitivity analyses. Construct validity was assessed using global dietary data and six harmonised individual-level dietary datasets. Spatial clustering was evaluated using global and local Moran's I. Associations with health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) were estimated using geographically and temporally weighted regression models adjusted for sex and socioeconomic and ecological covariates.Results DMI rankings were robust to calibration choices and Monte Carlo resampling. Across joint parameter settings, minimum Spearman correlations with baseline rankings ranged from 0.971 to 0.993, and Spearman correlations between the 250-draw and 500-draw estimates were 1.00 for all eight patterns. Component-level analyses reproduced the intended structure of the original dietary patterns, and individual-level gradients were consistent across six validation datasets. Dietary alignment varied substantially across countries and showed persistent geographic clustering. DMI-based models showed comparable or modestly better fit than conventional-score models. Associations with HALE were modest and varied by age and region. The largest positive pooled association was 0.17 additional HALE years for a one-standard-deviation higher Mediterranean-style DMI in ages 2-19 years (95% uncertainty interval 0.08 to 0.22). Between-country heterogeneity was greatest in midlife, with I² exceeding 50% for most patterns.Conclusions DMI provides a common probabilistic scale for comparing dietary patterns and identifying limiting components. Dietary alignment showed persistent geographic structure, while associations with HALE varied by age and region. These ecological findings may support dietary surveillance and prioritisation, but causal interpretation requires evidence from longitudinal or intervention studies.
SN - 2753-4294
ER -