Modeling of Mobility and Energy Policies in an Agent-Based Framework: Case Studies for Chicago Region in 2050
Abstract
Metropolitan regions are simultaneously pursuing several interventions to improve mobility, accessibility, and energy efficiency, necessitating integrated tools to understand how these policies interact to affect travel behavior, energy use, and infrastructure needs. This paper evaluates the combined impacts of electrification, freight demand management, road pricing, parking reform, and transit expansion on the Chicago metropolitan transportation system in 2050, using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario as the baseline. We employ POLARIS, a large-scale agent-based modeling framework calibrated to 2019 conditions, to simulate nine policy scenarios for the seven-county northeastern Illinois region. The framework co-simulates activity-based passenger demand, endogenous freight generation, multimodal traffic assignment, and transit operations, with charging infrastructure and freight operations optimized for each case. Our findings reveal that under the high electrification scenario, total fuel mass declines by 68% while total charging energy increases by approximately 4-8x from BAU, resulting in a peak power demand near 4 GW concentrated in the urban core. Furthermore, freight management policies reduce freight VMT by increasing trip frequency but shortening distances, smart road pricing most effectively reduces auto VMT, and transit expansion boosts ridership by 18% relative to BAU. By presenting the first integrated, agent-based scenario framework for Chicago that jointly evaluates these interventions, this study provides actionable insights for regional transportation planning, grid infrastructure investment, and emissions reduction, highlighting the value of targeted charger upgrades and coordinated policy bundles.
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BibTeX
@misc{alam2026modeling,
title = {{Modeling of Mobility and Energy Policies in an Agent-Based Framework: Case Studies for Chicago Region in 2050}},
author = {Md Rakibul Alam and Omer Verbas and Taner Cokyasar and Hadi Bhidya and Jesse Altman and Nora Beck and Joshua Auld and Pedro Veiga de Camargo and Jamie Cook and Felipe de Souza and Gopindra Nair and Hyunseop Uhm and Jan Zill},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.00327},
eprint = {2609.00327},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.00327},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Modeling of Mobility and Energy Policies in an Agent-Based Framework: Case Studies for Chicago Region in 2050
AU - Md Rakibul Alam
AU - Omer Verbas
AU - Taner Cokyasar
AU - Hadi Bhidya
AU - Jesse Altman
AU - Nora Beck
AU - Joshua Auld
AU - Pedro Veiga de Camargo
AU - Jamie Cook
AU - Felipe de Souza
AU - Gopindra Nair
AU - Hyunseop Uhm
AU - Jan Zill
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/01
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.00327
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.00327
AB - Metropolitan regions are simultaneously pursuing several interventions to improve mobility, accessibility, and energy efficiency, necessitating integrated tools to understand how these policies interact to affect travel behavior, energy use, and infrastructure needs. This paper evaluates the combined impacts of electrification, freight demand management, road pricing, parking reform, and transit expansion on the Chicago metropolitan transportation system in 2050, using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario as the baseline. We employ POLARIS, a large-scale agent-based modeling framework calibrated to 2019 conditions, to simulate nine policy scenarios for the seven-county northeastern Illinois region. The framework co-simulates activity-based passenger demand, endogenous freight generation, multimodal traffic assignment, and transit operations, with charging infrastructure and freight operations optimized for each case. Our findings reveal that under the high electrification scenario, total fuel mass declines by 68% while total charging energy increases by approximately 4-8x from BAU, resulting in a peak power demand near 4 GW concentrated in the urban core. Furthermore, freight management policies reduce freight VMT by increasing trip frequency but shortening distances, smart road pricing most effectively reduces auto VMT, and transit expansion boosts ridership by 18% relative to BAU. By presenting the first integrated, agent-based scenario framework for Chicago that jointly evaluates these interventions, this study provides actionable insights for regional transportation planning, grid infrastructure investment, and emissions reduction, highlighting the value of targeted charger upgrades and coordinated policy bundles.
ER -