Selective culling and the potential persistence of lumpy skin disease in cattle herds: insights from a mechanistic transmission model
Abstract
The first epidemic of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in France started in June 2025, with a total of 117 outbreaks recorded. This vector-borne disease affecting cattle is highly contagious, and prompted the implementation of strict control measures, including total depopulation of affected herds, resulting in the culling of more than 3,500 cattle. During the epidemic, total depopulation measures became increasingly unacceptable to cattle farmers, as they were perceived as unnecessary, leading to major protests. We use mathematical models to compare within-herd transmission dynamics under a selective culling strategy versus total depopulation In this work, we propose a compartmental model of within-herd transmission, accounting for both cattle and vector populations. A test-and-cull strategy is implemented, relying on imperfect diagnostic tests capable of detecting infection in asymptomatic cattle, and different levels of test sensitivity and detection earliness are investigated. Alongside the test-and-cull strategy, a vector control strategy is implemented considering different levels of effectiveness in reducing the vector population. Our model shows that a selective culling strategy still results in 75% [26, 100] of the herd becoming infected, even in the best-case-scenario with highly efficient diagnostic tests and vector control. Given currently available tests, considered to have a sensitivity of 30% for subclinical animals within 2-3 days prior to their infectiousness onset, the predicted persistence is 60 days [34, 95], with 94% of the herd [44, 100] eventually becoming infected, representing only a marginal advantage compared with a total depopulation strategy. These metrics further deteriorate when the efficacy of insecticide products decreases.
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BibTeX
@misc{delecroix2026selective,
title = {{Selective culling and the potential persistence of lumpy skin disease in cattle herds: insights from a mechanistic transmission model}},
author = {Clara Delecroix and Gaël Beaunée and Stéphane Bertagnoli and Thibaut Lurier and Brandon Hayes and Sébastien Picault and Guillaume Fournie and Timothée Vergne},
howpublished = {Veterinary Research},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.21203/rs.3.rs-9106559/v1},
url = {https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05562573v2},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Selective culling and the potential persistence of lumpy skin disease in cattle herds: insights from a mechanistic transmission model
AU - Clara Delecroix
AU - Gaël Beaunée
AU - Stéphane Bertagnoli
AU - Thibaut Lurier
AU - Brandon Hayes
AU - Sébastien Picault
AU - Guillaume Fournie
AU - Timothée Vergne
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/29
PB - Veterinary Research
DO - 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9106559/v1
UR - https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05562573v2
AB - The first epidemic of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in France started in June 2025, with a total of 117 outbreaks recorded. This vector-borne disease affecting cattle is highly contagious, and prompted the implementation of strict control measures, including total depopulation of affected herds, resulting in the culling of more than 3,500 cattle. During the epidemic, total depopulation measures became increasingly unacceptable to cattle farmers, as they were perceived as unnecessary, leading to major protests. We use mathematical models to compare within-herd transmission dynamics under a selective culling strategy versus total depopulation In this work, we propose a compartmental model of within-herd transmission, accounting for both cattle and vector populations. A test-and-cull strategy is implemented, relying on imperfect diagnostic tests capable of detecting infection in asymptomatic cattle, and different levels of test sensitivity and detection earliness are investigated. Alongside the test-and-cull strategy, a vector control strategy is implemented considering different levels of effectiveness in reducing the vector population. Our model shows that a selective culling strategy still results in 75% [26, 100] of the herd becoming infected, even in the best-case-scenario with highly efficient diagnostic tests and vector control. Given currently available tests, considered to have a sensitivity of 30% for subclinical animals within 2-3 days prior to their infectiousness onset, the predicted persistence is 60 days [34, 95], with 94% of the herd [44, 100] eventually becoming infected, representing only a marginal advantage compared with a total depopulation strategy. These metrics further deteriorate when the efficacy of insecticide products decreases.
SN - 0928-4249
SN - 1297-9716
ER -