Temporal Trends in Six Major Cancers: Implications for Lifestyle-Based Cancer Prevention and Early Detection Across the Life Course.
6 affiliations
- 1Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
- 2Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
- 3Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
- 4Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
- 5Texas Medical Center Digestive Disease Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
- 6Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX 77555, USA.
Abstract
Background/objectives
Cancer remains a serious public health challenge in the United States. Six major cancers (female breast, colorectal, liver, lung/bronchus, pancreas, and prostate) account for a substantial proportion of the national cancer burden. Understanding the changes in the incidence of these cancers over time can provide insights for prevention and control. This study examined temporal trends in the cancer incidence according to age at onset and stage at diagnosis.Methods
This population-based study analyzed data from the United States Cancer Statistics database for 2001-2023, including all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), based on age-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 people. Of note, incidence rates from 2020 data were excluded from the Joinpoint models because COVID-19 pandemic disruptions affected cancer screening, diagnosis, and reporting.Results
From 2001 to 2023, the incidence of lung and colorectal cancers declined, particularly among older adults (aged ≥50 years) (lung cancer: AAPC -2.09; 95% CI: -2.27, -1.90; colorectal cancer AAPC -2.70; 95% CI: -2.83, -2.56). In contrast, the incidence of colorectal, pancreatic, and breast cancers increased among younger adults (aged <50 years), whereas the incidence of liver and lung cancer declined. Moreover, prostate cancer incidence declined over time despite modest rebound in recent years (AAPC 1.83; 95% CI: 0.53, 3.14). Stage-specific analyses revealed increasing rates of early-stage diagnoses for several cancers, while late-stage cancer incidence increased for pancreatic and colorectal cancers (especially among younger adults).Conclusions
Cancer incidence varied substantially by cancer type, age, and stage at diagnosis. The rising incidence of colorectal, pancreatic, and breast cancers among younger adults underscores the need for continued research into risk factors, early detection, and prevention strategies.
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BibTeX
@article{sokale2026temporal,
title = {{Temporal Trends in Six Major Cancers: Implications for Lifestyle-Based Cancer Prevention and Early Detection Across the Life Course.}},
author = {Itunu Sokale and Omar Rosales and Hashem El-Serag and Natalia Khalaf and Aaron P Thrift and Victor Adekanmbi and Abiodun Oluyomi},
journal = {Cancers},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.3390/cancers18193149},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42882843},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Temporal Trends in Six Major Cancers: Implications for Lifestyle-Based Cancer Prevention and Early Detection Across the Life Course.
AU - Itunu Sokale
AU - Omar Rosales
AU - Hashem El-Serag
AU - Natalia Khalaf
AU - Aaron P Thrift
AU - Victor Adekanmbi
AU - Abiodun Oluyomi
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/29
JO - Cancers
DO - 10.3390/cancers18193149
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42882843
AB - Background/objectives Cancer remains a serious public health challenge in the United States. Six major cancers (female breast, colorectal, liver, lung/bronchus, pancreas, and prostate) account for a substantial proportion of the national cancer burden. Understanding the changes in the incidence of these cancers over time can provide insights for prevention and control. This study examined temporal trends in the cancer incidence according to age at onset and stage at diagnosis.Methods This population-based study analyzed data from the United States Cancer Statistics database for 2001-2023, including all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), based on age-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 people. Of note, incidence rates from 2020 data were excluded from the Joinpoint models because COVID-19 pandemic disruptions affected cancer screening, diagnosis, and reporting.Results From 2001 to 2023, the incidence of lung and colorectal cancers declined, particularly among older adults (aged ≥50 years) (lung cancer: AAPC -2.09; 95% CI: -2.27, -1.90; colorectal cancer AAPC -2.70; 95% CI: -2.83, -2.56). In contrast, the incidence of colorectal, pancreatic, and breast cancers increased among younger adults (aged <50 years), whereas the incidence of liver and lung cancer declined. Moreover, prostate cancer incidence declined over time despite modest rebound in recent years (AAPC 1.83; 95% CI: 0.53, 3.14). Stage-specific analyses revealed increasing rates of early-stage diagnoses for several cancers, while late-stage cancer incidence increased for pancreatic and colorectal cancers (especially among younger adults).Conclusions Cancer incidence varied substantially by cancer type, age, and stage at diagnosis. The rising incidence of colorectal, pancreatic, and breast cancers among younger adults underscores the need for continued research into risk factors, early detection, and prevention strategies.
SN - 2072-6694
ER -