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Peer-reviewedCC BYJournal of Geophysical Research Oceans

The Response of the Global Overturning Circulation to Recent and Projected Antarctic Meltwater Changes

  • Birte Gülk1,2
  • Casimir de Lavergne1,3
  • Jean‐Baptiste Sallée1,4
  • Gurvan Madec1,5,6
  • Clément Rousset1,7
  • Anna Olivé Abelló8,9
  • Violaine Coulon10,11
11 affiliations
  1. 1Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques Sorbonne Université CNRS IRD MNHN LOCEAN/IPSL Paris France
  2. 2Laboratoire d'Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentations et Approches Numeriques
  3. 3LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Université‐CNRS‐IRD‐MNHN,
  4. 4LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS
  5. 5Université Grenoble Alpes Inria CNRS Grenoble INP LJK Grenoble France
  6. 6LOCEAN
  7. 7LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université
  8. 8Université Grenoble Alpes CNRS IRD INRAE Grenoble INP Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement Grenoble France
  9. 9Université Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/INRAE/G-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement
  10. 10Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Brussels Belgium
  11. 11Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)
Open at sourceDOICite

Abstract

The Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves are losing mass and release freshwater to the ocean, affecting the ocean state. The response of ocean circulation to recent and projected increases in Antarctic meltwater is still uncertain, because of uncertainties in meltwater forcing and deficiencies in global ocean and climate models. Here, we use an equilibrated one‐degree global ocean configuration that realistically represents Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and abyssal ventilation. We perform three meltwater hosing experiments covering the period 1990–2100: an “Idealized” experiment in which exactly 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = ) of freshwater is released uniformly around the Antarctic coast; a “Realistic” experiment, where reconstructed and projected freshwater anomalies are distributed in time and space based on recent estimates of melting rates and processes; and a “Semi‐realistic” experiment in which the same time‐varying freshwater anomalies are released uniformly around the Antarctic coast. In all experiments, AABW transport at 64S decreases, by 5–12 Sv by 2100. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strengthens by approximately 2 Sv, driven by enhanced Southern Ocean upwelling. This upwelling increase results from weaker compensation between northward near‐surface flow and southward mesoscale‐induced flow in the stratifying upper Southern Ocean. In the idealized experiment, the AMOC ultimately weakens due to the propagation of fresh surface anomalies to the subpolar North Atlantic. The timing of simulated overturning changes depends strongly on meltwater forcing; changes appear latest in the most realistic experiment.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{gulk2026response,
  title = {{The Response of the Global Overturning Circulation to Recent and Projected Antarctic Meltwater Changes}},
  author = {Birte Gülk and Casimir de Lavergne and Jean‐Baptiste Sallée and Gurvan Madec and Clément Rousset and Anna Olivé Abelló and Violaine Coulon},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1029/2026jc024622},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jc024622},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The Response of the Global Overturning Circulation to Recent and Projected Antarctic Meltwater Changes
AU  - Birte Gülk
AU  - Casimir de Lavergne
AU  - Jean‐Baptiste Sallée
AU  - Gurvan Madec
AU  - Clément Rousset
AU  - Anna Olivé Abelló
AU  - Violaine Coulon
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/01
JO  - Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans
DO  - 10.1029/2026jc024622
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jc024622
AB  - The Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves are losing mass and release freshwater to the ocean, affecting the ocean state. The response of ocean circulation to recent and projected increases in Antarctic meltwater is still uncertain, because of uncertainties in meltwater forcing and deficiencies in global ocean and climate models. Here, we use an equilibrated one‐degree global ocean configuration that realistically represents Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and abyssal ventilation. We perform three meltwater hosing experiments covering the period 1990–2100: an “Idealized” experiment in which exactly 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = ) of freshwater is released uniformly around the Antarctic coast; a “Realistic” experiment, where reconstructed and projected freshwater anomalies are distributed in time and space based on recent estimates of melting rates and processes; and a “Semi‐realistic” experiment in which the same time‐varying freshwater anomalies are released uniformly around the Antarctic coast. In all experiments, AABW transport at 64S decreases, by 5–12 Sv by 2100. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strengthens by approximately 2 Sv, driven by enhanced Southern Ocean upwelling. This upwelling increase results from weaker compensation between northward near‐surface flow and southward mesoscale‐induced flow in the stratifying upper Southern Ocean. In the idealized experiment, the AMOC ultimately weakens due to the propagation of fresh surface anomalies to the subpolar North Atlantic. The timing of simulated overturning changes depends strongly on meltwater forcing; changes appear latest in the most realistic experiment.
SN  - 2169-9275
SN  - 2169-9291
ER  -