Contemporary Environmental Drivers of European Plant Distributions
Abstract
Aim Understanding the contemporary environmental conditions determining plant species distributions is crucial. Here, we quantified the relative importance of climatic, edaphic, hydrological, topographic, and land use drivers of the European vascular flora and tested whether driver hierarchies vary across species groups and ecological characteristics, spatial scales and bioregions. Location Europe and adjacent areas. Time Period 1990–2022. Main Taxa Vascular plants. Methods We compiled > 20 million occurrence records from GBIF, EVA and other databases for ~11,500 vascular plant species, mapped onto a 1 km × 1 km grid. Gradient boosted decision trees were fitted with 36 uncorrelated variables and evaluated through spatial block cross‐validation. Variable contributions were assessed using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values at continental and bioregional scales. Using SHAP profiles, we also clustered species with similar environmental responses and tested how these groups relate to life history, growth form, habitat and CSR ecological strategies. Results At the continental scale, climate and soil emerged as the dominant environmental drivers of plant distributions. Six response groups were identified, which showed that less dominant drivers—hydrology, topography and land use and cover—strongly influenced certain species. Groups were significantly associated with ecological characteristics such as growth form. Beyond group‐level differences, we also found clear geographical patterns and scale‐dependent shifts in variable importance: within bioregions, local drivers gained importance relative to continental constraints. Main Conclusions Plant species distributions in Europe are primarily shaped by climate and soil among contemporary environmental drivers, but species‐specific ecological characteristics, scale and spatial context modulate the hierarchy of drivers. Recognizing response diversity is essential to avoid oversimplified generalizations. A multi‐scale framework that integrates climatic gradients with context‐dependent drivers and dispersal limitations will improve predictions of plant biodiversity responses to global change.
Related
- The phenology of the European flat oyster (Ostrea edulis) and its environmental drivers
- Plant adaptive strategies respond to environmental change across European grassland habitats
- Climate and plant life-history traits as drivers of seed germination niches
- Unraveling Environmental Drivers of Insect Pest Dynamics Across Multiple Landscapes
- Effects of environmental and climatic drivers on abyssal macrobenthic infaunal communities from the NE Pacific nodule province
BibTeX
@article{chenevois2026contemporary,
title = {{Contemporary Environmental Drivers of European Plant Distributions}},
author = {Eléonore Chenevois and Gabrielle Deschamps and Cyrille Violle and Sara Si-Moussi and Idoia Biurrun and Juan Antonio Campos and Klaus Thomas Ecker and Franz Essl and Jean‐claude Gegout and Behlül Güler and Corrado Marcenò and Aaron Pérez-Haase and Eszter Ruprecht and Michele de Sanctis and Jozef Šibík and Zvjezdana Stančić and Jens‐christian Svenning and Wilfried Thuiller},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1111/geb.70308},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05764867v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Contemporary Environmental Drivers of European Plant Distributions
AU - Eléonore Chenevois
AU - Gabrielle Deschamps
AU - Cyrille Violle
AU - Sara Si-Moussi
AU - Idoia Biurrun
AU - Juan Antonio Campos
AU - Klaus Thomas Ecker
AU - Franz Essl
AU - Jean‐claude Gegout
AU - Behlül Güler
AU - Corrado Marcenò
AU - Aaron Pérez-Haase
AU - Eszter Ruprecht
AU - Michele de Sanctis
AU - Jozef Šibík
AU - Zvjezdana Stančić
AU - Jens‐christian Svenning
AU - Wilfried Thuiller
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/10
JO - Global Ecology and Biogeography
DO - 10.1111/geb.70308
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05764867v1
AB - Aim Understanding the contemporary environmental conditions determining plant species distributions is crucial. Here, we quantified the relative importance of climatic, edaphic, hydrological, topographic, and land use drivers of the European vascular flora and tested whether driver hierarchies vary across species groups and ecological characteristics, spatial scales and bioregions. Location Europe and adjacent areas. Time Period 1990–2022. Main Taxa Vascular plants. Methods We compiled > 20 million occurrence records from GBIF, EVA and other databases for ~11,500 vascular plant species, mapped onto a 1 km × 1 km grid. Gradient boosted decision trees were fitted with 36 uncorrelated variables and evaluated through spatial block cross‐validation. Variable contributions were assessed using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values at continental and bioregional scales. Using SHAP profiles, we also clustered species with similar environmental responses and tested how these groups relate to life history, growth form, habitat and CSR ecological strategies. Results At the continental scale, climate and soil emerged as the dominant environmental drivers of plant distributions. Six response groups were identified, which showed that less dominant drivers—hydrology, topography and land use and cover—strongly influenced certain species. Groups were significantly associated with ecological characteristics such as growth form. Beyond group‐level differences, we also found clear geographical patterns and scale‐dependent shifts in variable importance: within bioregions, local drivers gained importance relative to continental constraints. Main Conclusions Plant species distributions in Europe are primarily shaped by climate and soil among contemporary environmental drivers, but species‐specific ecological characteristics, scale and spatial context modulate the hierarchy of drivers. Recognizing response diversity is essential to avoid oversimplified generalizations. A multi‐scale framework that integrates climatic gradients with context‐dependent drivers and dispersal limitations will improve predictions of plant biodiversity responses to global change.
SN - 1466-822X
SN - 1466-822X
ER -