Expecting the unexpected: Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality
- 1University of Tsukuba
Abstract
ObjectiveThis study evaluated how well subjective life expectancy (SLE) predicts mortality and actual life expectancy (ALE), along with factors associated with inaccurate expectations.
MethodsUsing panel data on approximately 2,000 individuals with up to 28 years of follow-up from a nationally representative sample of older Japanese adults, we examined relationships among SLE, actual mortality, and ALE by survival analysis. We also evaluated health and socioeconomic disparities using concentration indices and investigated factors influencing SLE-ALE discrepancies and focal-point (i.e. rounded or anchored estimates) and do-not-know responses. SLE was measured as a self-reported point estimate, whereas ALE mainly came from official records and family reports.
ResultsSLE was significantly associated with both actual mortality and ALE, even after accounting for demographic and socioeconomic variables. Nonetheless, significant inaccuracies remain: approximately 59% of individuals surpassed their expected lifespan. SLE was positively associated with ALE; however, the association was inelastic. Women and those with higher education levels were more likely to outlive their SLE, whereas those in poorer health were less likely to do so. Higher education correlated with fewer focal point responses to the SLE question.
DiscussionSLE effectively predicts ALE; however, gaps are non-negligible and differ across gender and socioeconomic groups. Offering more precise data, such as sex- and age-specific remaining life expectancy, can enhance SLE formation and lead to more informed economic choices.
HighlightsO_LISubjective life expectancy is linked to actual mortality and life expectancy. C_LIO_LISignificant inaccuracies in subjective life expectancy remain. C_LIO_LIApproximately 59% of individuals outlived their expected lifespan. C_LIO_LIWomen and the better-educated were more likely to outlive their expectations. C_LIO_LIProviding sex- and age-specific data can improve ones lifespan expectations. C_LI
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BibTeX
@misc{okamoto2026expecting,
title = {{Expecting the unexpected: Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality}},
author = {S. Okamoto and A. Yamada and E. Kobayashi and J. Liang},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.64898/2026.08.24.26361278},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.24.26361278v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Expecting the unexpected: Subjective life expectancy and actual mortality
AU - S. Okamoto
AU - A. Yamada
AU - E. Kobayashi
AU - J. Liang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/24
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.08.24.26361278
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.24.26361278v1
AB - ObjectiveThis study evaluated how well subjective life expectancy (SLE) predicts mortality and actual life expectancy (ALE), along with factors associated with inaccurate expectations. MethodsUsing panel data on approximately 2,000 individuals with up to 28 years of follow-up from a nationally representative sample of older Japanese adults, we examined relationships among SLE, actual mortality, and ALE by survival analysis. We also evaluated health and socioeconomic disparities using concentration indices and investigated factors influencing SLE-ALE discrepancies and focal-point (i.e. rounded or anchored estimates) and do-not-know responses. SLE was measured as a self-reported point estimate, whereas ALE mainly came from official records and family reports. ResultsSLE was significantly associated with both actual mortality and ALE, even after accounting for demographic and socioeconomic variables. Nonetheless, significant inaccuracies remain: approximately 59% of individuals surpassed their expected lifespan. SLE was positively associated with ALE; however, the association was inelastic. Women and those with higher education levels were more likely to outlive their SLE, whereas those in poorer health were less likely to do so. Higher education correlated with fewer focal point responses to the SLE question. DiscussionSLE effectively predicts ALE; however, gaps are non-negligible and differ across gender and socioeconomic groups. Offering more precise data, such as sex- and age-specific remaining life expectancy, can enhance SLE formation and lead to more informed economic choices. HighlightsO_LISubjective life expectancy is linked to actual mortality and life expectancy. C_LIO_LISignificant inaccuracies in subjective life expectancy remain. C_LIO_LIApproximately 59% of individuals outlived their expected lifespan. C_LIO_LIWomen and the better-educated were more likely to outlive their expectations. C_LIO_LIProviding sex- and age-specific data can improve ones lifespan expectations. C_LI
ER -