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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Environmental Research Letters

Projecting potential population exposure to the invasive malaria vector Anopheles stephensi

  • Yelin Sun1
  • Weihang Liu2
  • Yuanyuan Jing3
  • Tian Liu4
  • Meng Shang5
  • Yujuan Yue5
  • Yuhong Guo5
  • Qiyong Liu5
5 affiliations
  1. 1Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  2. 2Nanjing University
  3. 3Xi'an University of Finance and Economics
  4. 4Hunan Agricultural University
  5. 5National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention
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Abstract

Malaria remains a major global public health threat, and the recent invasion and rapid spread of Anopheles stephensi across Africa pose new challenges for disease control. To assess future risks, we estimated the distribution of An. stephensi habitat suitability under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) across 2021-2100 using a boosted regression tree (BRT) model, and quantified population exposure through a contribution decomposition framework separating environmental, population and joint effects. The results showed that the proportion of urban land was the most important predictor (17.17%), followed by mean temperature of the wettest quarter (BIO8, 9.24%) and the annual mean temperature (BIO1, 8.24%). Suitable habitats expanded consistently under all scenarios. Notably, SSP370 generated the highest population exposure, and there would be approximately 205.51 million people living in high suitability habitats for An. stephensi by 2081-2100. From the contribution decomposition framework, population change dominated the total exposure increase, outweighing environmental effects and joint effects. However, the individual contributions of population and environmental effects gradually declined over time, while their joint effect increased. These findings demonstrated that population growth, rather than climate change alone, is the primary driver of future exposure to An. stephensi. The increasing joint effect of population and environmental factors further underscores the need for integrated, region‑specific interventions that address their combined influence on transmission risk.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{sun2026projecting,
  title = {{Projecting potential population exposure to the invasive malaria vector Anopheles stephensi}},
  author = {Yelin Sun and Weihang Liu and Yuanyuan Jing and Tian Liu and Meng Shang and Yujuan Yue and Yuhong Guo and Qiyong Liu},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeb558},
  url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb558},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Projecting potential population exposure to the invasive malaria vector Anopheles stephensi
AU  - Yelin Sun
AU  - Weihang Liu
AU  - Yuanyuan Jing
AU  - Tian Liu
AU  - Meng Shang
AU  - Yujuan Yue
AU  - Yuhong Guo
AU  - Qiyong Liu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/16
JO  - Environmental Research Letters
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb558
UR  - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb558
AB  - Malaria remains a major global public health threat, and the recent invasion and rapid spread of Anopheles stephensi across Africa pose new challenges for disease control. To assess future risks, we estimated the distribution of An. stephensi habitat suitability under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) across 2021-2100 using a boosted regression tree (BRT) model, and quantified population exposure through a contribution decomposition framework separating environmental, population and joint effects. The results showed that the proportion of urban land was the most important predictor (17.17%), followed by mean temperature of the wettest quarter (BIO8, 9.24%) and the annual mean temperature (BIO1, 8.24%). Suitable habitats expanded consistently under all scenarios. Notably, SSP370 generated the highest population exposure, and there would be approximately 205.51 million people living in high suitability habitats for An. stephensi by 2081-2100. From the contribution decomposition framework, population change dominated the total exposure increase, outweighing environmental effects and joint effects. However, the individual contributions of population and environmental effects gradually declined over time, while their joint effect increased. These findings demonstrated that population growth, rather than climate change alone, is the primary driver of future exposure to An. stephensi. The increasing joint effect of population and environmental factors further underscores the need for integrated, region‑specific interventions that address their combined influence on transmission risk.
SN  - 1748-9326
ER  -