Bayesian Recovery Trajectories Following Forced Sexual Experience: Healthcare Access and Social Support Among Women
Abstract
\textbf{Background.} Women who experience forced sexual violence face elevated risks of poor mental and physical health, but whether long-term health follows distinct trajectories and whether healthcare access and social support differentiate them remains unclear. \textbf{Methods.} We analyzed 1,848 women from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), followed from adolescence into adulthood. An identified Bayesian mixture model classified joint mental and physical health burden trajectories from six repeated indicators. Bayesian logistic models estimated associations of forced sexual experience, healthcare access, social support, and demographics with trajectory membership. Robustness was assessed across three mixture specifications and four- and five-class alternatives. \textbf{Results.} We retained three classes: low-burden/resilient (27.2\% posterior mean weight), moderate/worsening burden (43.2\%), and high chronic burden (29.7\%). All specifications converged (R̂=1.00) with well-separated classes; four- and five-class alternatives had convergence problems or an unstable additional class. Forced sexual experience was associated with higher posterior odds of high chronic burden (OR = 3.78, 95\% credible interval [CrI] 2.84--5.04) and moderate/worsening burden (OR = 1.63, 95\% CrI 1.26--2.12). Better healthcare access and greater social connectedness were independently associated with lower posterior odds of high chronic burden. \noindent\textbf{Conclusions.} Long-term health after forced sexual experience follows heterogeneous trajectories. Healthcare access and social connectedness distinguish more favorable trajectories and represent modifiable targets for trauma-informed, longitudinal, survivor-centered care.
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BibTeX
@misc{olayinka2026bayesian,
title = {{Bayesian Recovery Trajectories Following Forced Sexual Experience: Healthcare Access and Social Support Among Women}},
author = {Hammed A. Olayinka and Saheed O. Olayinka},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.35894},
eprint = {2610.35894},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.35894},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Bayesian Recovery Trajectories Following Forced Sexual Experience: Healthcare Access and Social Support Among Women
AU - Hammed A. Olayinka
AU - Saheed O. Olayinka
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.35894
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.35894
AB - \textbf{Background.} Women who experience forced sexual violence face elevated risks of poor mental and physical health, but whether long-term health follows distinct trajectories and whether healthcare access and social support differentiate them remains unclear. \textbf{Methods.} We analyzed 1,848 women from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), followed from adolescence into adulthood. An identified Bayesian mixture model classified joint mental and physical health burden trajectories from six repeated indicators. Bayesian logistic models estimated associations of forced sexual experience, healthcare access, social support, and demographics with trajectory membership. Robustness was assessed across three mixture specifications and four- and five-class alternatives. \textbf{Results.} We retained three classes: low-burden/resilient (27.2\% posterior mean weight), moderate/worsening burden (43.2\%), and high chronic burden (29.7\%). All specifications converged (R̂=1.00) with well-separated classes; four- and five-class alternatives had convergence problems or an unstable additional class. Forced sexual experience was associated with higher posterior odds of high chronic burden (OR = 3.78, 95\% credible interval [CrI] 2.84--5.04) and moderate/worsening burden (OR = 1.63, 95\% CrI 1.26--2.12). Better healthcare access and greater social connectedness were independently associated with lower posterior odds of high chronic burden. \noindent\textbf{Conclusions.} Long-term health after forced sexual experience follows heterogeneous trajectories. Healthcare access and social connectedness distinguish more favorable trajectories and represent modifiable targets for trauma-informed, longitudinal, survivor-centered care.
ER -