Phenological tracking of migratory waterfowl to spring green-up derived from individual movement.
7 affiliations
- 1Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands. [email protected].
- 2Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands.
- 3Key Laboratory of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region's Eco-Environment, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China.
- 4Department of Biology, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
- 5School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China.
- 6Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands. [email protected].
- 7Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Field Research Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. [email protected].
Abstract
Background
Migratory birds are affected by phenological mismatches between migration timing and food availability under climate change. Birds can adjust their migration timing to some extent to track shifts in food availability, a phenomenon referred to as phenological sensitivity. Our understanding of species-specific phenological sensitivity and tracking in response to climate change remains limited, particularly because these processes have rarely been quantified using long-term individual movement data.Methods
In this study, we investigated the phenological tracking of migratory waterfowl by combining eight-year satellite tracking data of four species with spring green-up derived from remote sensing. Using Bayesian models and accounting for individual differences, we analyzed changes of bird arrival timing in relation to multi-year shifts in spring green-up, as well as responses to interannual variation.Results
Birds respond to shift in spring green-up with species-specific differences. Species with intermediate levels of individual variation (the greater white-fronted goose Anser albifrons) tend to align their migration timing better with both multi-year and interannual shifts in spring green-up, whereas species with excessive individual variation (the tundra bean goose Anser serrirostris) show limited degree of phenological tracking.Conclusions
Migratory waterfowl respond to both multi-year and interannual shifts in spring green-up, with individual variations influencing species-specific tracking. While intermediate individual variation may lead to more synchronous responses to climate change at the population level, excessive individual variations may reduce population-level synchrony and hinder adaptive response. Our findings advance the understanding of climate change impacts on migratory birds and their capacity to adapt to changing environments. Considering individual variation in phenological tracking is therefore essential when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change.
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BibTeX
@article{liu2026phenological,
title = {{Phenological tracking of migratory waterfowl to spring green-up derived from individual movement.}},
author = {Chengyi Liu and Peter M van Bodegom and Fei Xu and Babak Naimi and Guangchun Lei and Jialin Lei and Yali Si},
journal = {Movement ecology},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1186/s40462-026-00685-3},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42928259},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Phenological tracking of migratory waterfowl to spring green-up derived from individual movement.
AU - Chengyi Liu
AU - Peter M van Bodegom
AU - Fei Xu
AU - Babak Naimi
AU - Guangchun Lei
AU - Jialin Lei
AU - Yali Si
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/27
JO - Movement ecology
DO - 10.1186/s40462-026-00685-3
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42928259
AB - Background Migratory birds are affected by phenological mismatches between migration timing and food availability under climate change. Birds can adjust their migration timing to some extent to track shifts in food availability, a phenomenon referred to as phenological sensitivity. Our understanding of species-specific phenological sensitivity and tracking in response to climate change remains limited, particularly because these processes have rarely been quantified using long-term individual movement data.Methods In this study, we investigated the phenological tracking of migratory waterfowl by combining eight-year satellite tracking data of four species with spring green-up derived from remote sensing. Using Bayesian models and accounting for individual differences, we analyzed changes of bird arrival timing in relation to multi-year shifts in spring green-up, as well as responses to interannual variation.Results Birds respond to shift in spring green-up with species-specific differences. Species with intermediate levels of individual variation (the greater white-fronted goose Anser albifrons) tend to align their migration timing better with both multi-year and interannual shifts in spring green-up, whereas species with excessive individual variation (the tundra bean goose Anser serrirostris) show limited degree of phenological tracking.Conclusions Migratory waterfowl respond to both multi-year and interannual shifts in spring green-up, with individual variations influencing species-specific tracking. While intermediate individual variation may lead to more synchronous responses to climate change at the population level, excessive individual variations may reduce population-level synchrony and hinder adaptive response. Our findings advance the understanding of climate change impacts on migratory birds and their capacity to adapt to changing environments. Considering individual variation in phenological tracking is therefore essential when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change.
SN - 2051-3933
ER -