Two horizons, one burden: estimating lifetime and decade-long medical costs of childhood obesity in Kazakhstan
- 1Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical University , ,
- 2Department of Physiology, Karaganda Medical University , ,
Abstract
Objective: To estimate the lifetime and cumulative direct medical burden associated with childhood overweight and obesity in Kazakhstan using a dynamic age-structured modeling approach.
Methods: A dynamic age-structured Markov cohort model was developed to simulate the progression of children aged 5–9 years through successive age groups and weight states (normal weight, exclusive overweight, and obesity). Transition probabilities were reconstructed using a synthetic cohort approach based on repeated cross-sectional prevalence data and were calibrated to reproduce observed epidemiological patterns. State-specific annual direct medical costs were estimated using a normative costing approach based on national clinical protocols and tariffs. Lifetime burden was calculated as the discounted sum of future medical costs (3% discount rate). Furthermore, cumulative short-term was estimated for the period 2024–2035. Deterministic sensitivity analysis and structural scenario analysis were conducted to assess model robustness. Policy scenarios examined the impact of reducing childhood obesity prevalence by 5 and 10%.
Results: The average discounted lifetime cost per child was 96,996.26 KZT (USD 206.37), resulting in a total national lifetime financial impact of 194 billion KZT (USD 413 million) for the 2024 cohort of children aged 5–9 years. Over the 2024–2035 horizon, cumulative discounted direct healthcare expenditure reached 128.72 billion KZT (USD 273.9 million), with approximately 71% attributable to obesity. Sensitivity analysis showed that model results were most responsive to parameters related to obesity prevalence and costs. Structural scenarios indicated that the base-case model likely underestimates cost, with age-varying adult costs increasing estimates by up to 13.6%. Policy scenarios demonstrated that a 5 and 10% reduction in childhood obesity prevalence could reduce lifetime burden by 4.8 and 9.4%, respectively.
Conclusion: Childhood obesity imposes a substantial and persistent economic impact on Kazakhstan's healthcare system. Preventive interventions targeting obesity in early life may yield significant long-term cost savings and should be prioritized in national health policy.
Related
- Estimating Lifetime Periodontal Burden Under Informative Tooth Loss
- Neighborhood disadvantages and longitudinal progression of multimorbidity among adult survivors of childhood cancer: a single-center St. Jude Lifetime Cohort Study in the U.S.
- Associations between adverse childhood experiences, depression, and empathy among Thai medical students: implications for trauma-informed medical education.
- Early wounds, minds in training: childhood adversity and the mediating effect of psychological distress in suicidal risk among medical students
- Editorial: New horizons in stroke management, volume II
BibTeX
@article{koichubekov2026horizons,
title = {{Two horizons, one burden: estimating lifetime and decade-long medical costs of childhood obesity in Kazakhstan}},
author = {Berik Koichubekov and Khamida Abdikadirova and Nazgul Omarbekova and Gulzat Zhunussova and Azamat Kharin},
journal = {Frontiers in public health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2026.1853931},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13672551},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Two horizons, one burden: estimating lifetime and decade-long medical costs of childhood obesity in Kazakhstan
AU - Berik Koichubekov
AU - Khamida Abdikadirova
AU - Nazgul Omarbekova
AU - Gulzat Zhunussova
AU - Azamat Kharin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/02
JO - Frontiers in public health
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1853931
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13672551
AB - Objective: To estimate the lifetime and cumulative direct medical burden associated with childhood overweight and obesity in Kazakhstan using a dynamic age-structured modeling approach. Methods: A dynamic age-structured Markov cohort model was developed to simulate the progression of children aged 5–9 years through successive age groups and weight states (normal weight, exclusive overweight, and obesity). Transition probabilities were reconstructed using a synthetic cohort approach based on repeated cross-sectional prevalence data and were calibrated to reproduce observed epidemiological patterns. State-specific annual direct medical costs were estimated using a normative costing approach based on national clinical protocols and tariffs. Lifetime burden was calculated as the discounted sum of future medical costs (3% discount rate). Furthermore, cumulative short-term was estimated for the period 2024–2035. Deterministic sensitivity analysis and structural scenario analysis were conducted to assess model robustness. Policy scenarios examined the impact of reducing childhood obesity prevalence by 5 and 10%. Results: The average discounted lifetime cost per child was 96,996.26 KZT (USD 206.37), resulting in a total national lifetime financial impact of 194 billion KZT (USD 413 million) for the 2024 cohort of children aged 5–9 years. Over the 2024–2035 horizon, cumulative discounted direct healthcare expenditure reached 128.72 billion KZT (USD 273.9 million), with approximately 71% attributable to obesity. Sensitivity analysis showed that model results were most responsive to parameters related to obesity prevalence and costs. Structural scenarios indicated that the base-case model likely underestimates cost, with age-varying adult costs increasing estimates by up to 13.6%. Policy scenarios demonstrated that a 5 and 10% reduction in childhood obesity prevalence could reduce lifetime burden by 4.8 and 9.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Childhood obesity imposes a substantial and persistent economic impact on Kazakhstan's healthcare system. Preventive interventions targeting obesity in early life may yield significant long-term cost savings and should be prioritized in national health policy.
SN - 2296-2565
ER -