Disentangling Forced and Internal Climate Variability in Single Realizations using Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control
Abstract
Separating externally forced trends from internal climate variability is a fundamental challenge in climate science, particularly when analyzing observational records that exist only as a single realization. We show that a single climate realization can be decomposed into forced and internal components by treating external forcing as a dynamical driver within a linear stochastic system, an idea grounded in pullback attractor theory. This addresses a central challenge for climate projection and for detecting and attributing the forced response. Existing single-realization methods rely on linear inverse models (LIMs), which ignore forcing, or linear regression, which omits dynamics. Here we introduce PullbackDMDc, a method grounded in non-autonomous dynamical systems theory and dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc), incorporating pullback attractor estimation to decompose a single climate realization into spatial modes and their associated forced and internal components, yielding a physically interpretable picture of the underlying dynamics. After testing on a synthetic system with a known forced response, we illustrate the utility of PullbackDMDc for Earth System Model (ESM) evaluation by applying it to near-surface air temperature and sea-level pressure from reanalysis and four ESM large ensembles. PullbackDMDc estimates the forced response with skill matching or exceeding established baselines and helps select forcing predictors against model-based ground truth. Its internal-variability components reveal that ESMs qualitatively capture interannual and decadal modes while exhibiting systematic differences relative to each other and to observations. Skillful forced-response estimation and a novel decomposition position PullbackDMDc as a practical tool for single-realization climate analysis and ESM evaluation.
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BibTeX
@misc{mankovich2026disentangling,
title = {{Disentangling Forced and Internal Climate Variability in Single Realizations using Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control}},
author = {Nathan Mankovich and Andrei Gavrilov and Gustau Camps-Valls},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2607.18298},
eprint = {2607.18298},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.18298},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Disentangling Forced and Internal Climate Variability in Single Realizations using Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control
AU - Nathan Mankovich
AU - Andrei Gavrilov
AU - Gustau Camps-Valls
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/09
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2607.18298
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.18298
AB - Separating externally forced trends from internal climate variability is a fundamental challenge in climate science, particularly when analyzing observational records that exist only as a single realization. We show that a single climate realization can be decomposed into forced and internal components by treating external forcing as a dynamical driver within a linear stochastic system, an idea grounded in pullback attractor theory. This addresses a central challenge for climate projection and for detecting and attributing the forced response. Existing single-realization methods rely on linear inverse models (LIMs), which ignore forcing, or linear regression, which omits dynamics. Here we introduce PullbackDMDc, a method grounded in non-autonomous dynamical systems theory and dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc), incorporating pullback attractor estimation to decompose a single climate realization into spatial modes and their associated forced and internal components, yielding a physically interpretable picture of the underlying dynamics. After testing on a synthetic system with a known forced response, we illustrate the utility of PullbackDMDc for Earth System Model (ESM) evaluation by applying it to near-surface air temperature and sea-level pressure from reanalysis and four ESM large ensembles. PullbackDMDc estimates the forced response with skill matching or exceeding established baselines and helps select forcing predictors against model-based ground truth. Its internal-variability components reveal that ESMs qualitatively capture interannual and decadal modes while exhibiting systematic differences relative to each other and to observations. Skillful forced-response estimation and a novel decomposition position PullbackDMDc as a practical tool for single-realization climate analysis and ESM evaluation.
ER -