Drought and Syphilis Exposure in Zambia, Uganda, and Tanzania: Are There Urban/Rural Disparities?
- 1Institut National d'Etudes Demograpiques: INED
Abstract
Eastern and southern Africa are highly affected by drought, and projections indicate that droughts will become more common in the coming decades. Whilst there has been research on the impact of drought on HIV, attributable to its effect on food insecurity and increased risky sexual behaviour, the link between drought and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), particularly syphilis, remains largely unexplored. This study therefore assesses the association between drought and active syphilis, history of syphilis, and recovery from syphilis in Zambia, Uganda, and Tanzania, while examining disparities between urban and rural settings. It uses data on 75,225 people from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys (2016-17), which include biomarker information, combined with rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) dataset to define drought in the two years prior to the survey. Multivariate logistic regression models with country-level fixed effects show that in urban areas, drought was associated with a significant increase in the probability of having active syphilis (average marginal effects (AME) = 0.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2%-1.0%) and of having ever had syphilis (AME = 2%, 95% CI: 0.8%-4%). No significant association was found in rural areas. Exposure to drought was not associated with recovery from syphilis in either setting, though confidence intervals were wide. Our results underscore the importance of strengthening healthcare systems to make them more resilient to drought shocks in urban areas, and the need to reinforce syphilis prevention and treatment programmes in those areas when such shocks occur.
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BibTeX
@misc{fotso2026drought,
title = {{Drought and Syphilis Exposure in Zambia, Uganda, and Tanzania: Are There Urban/Rural Disparities?}},
author = {A. Simo Fotso and C. M. Charline Maltat and B. Gbaguidi-Sekpon and H. Marzouk and A. Trickey and A. Low and V. Becquet},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.64898/2026.08.31.26361827},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.26361827v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Drought and Syphilis Exposure in Zambia, Uganda, and Tanzania: Are There Urban/Rural Disparities?
AU - A. Simo Fotso
AU - C. M. Charline Maltat
AU - B. Gbaguidi-Sekpon
AU - H. Marzouk
AU - A. Trickey
AU - A. Low
AU - V. Becquet
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/31
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361827
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.31.26361827v1
AB - Eastern and southern Africa are highly affected by drought, and projections indicate that droughts will become more common in the coming decades. Whilst there has been research on the impact of drought on HIV, attributable to its effect on food insecurity and increased risky sexual behaviour, the link between drought and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), particularly syphilis, remains largely unexplored. This study therefore assesses the association between drought and active syphilis, history of syphilis, and recovery from syphilis in Zambia, Uganda, and Tanzania, while examining disparities between urban and rural settings. It uses data on 75,225 people from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys (2016-17), which include biomarker information, combined with rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) dataset to define drought in the two years prior to the survey. Multivariate logistic regression models with country-level fixed effects show that in urban areas, drought was associated with a significant increase in the probability of having active syphilis (average marginal effects (AME) = 0.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2%-1.0%) and of having ever had syphilis (AME = 2%, 95% CI: 0.8%-4%). No significant association was found in rural areas. Exposure to drought was not associated with recovery from syphilis in either setting, though confidence intervals were wide. Our results underscore the importance of strengthening healthcare systems to make them more resilient to drought shocks in urban areas, and the need to reinforce syphilis prevention and treatment programmes in those areas when such shocks occur.
ER -