Calibrated Order-Randomized Rosenblatt Tests
Abstract
We test whether a multivariate vector X conforms to a specified distribution F, a problem in copula modelling and density forecasting. The Rosenblatt transform reduces it to a test of uniformity, but depends on an arbitrary coordinate ordering that strongly affects power under dependence. We study order randomization: applying the transform under many random orderings and merging the evidence with dependence-robust rules. Reordering conserves the total Mahalanobis signal energy and merely redistributes it, so one ordering is a lucky or unlucky draw. In simulations we observe significant gains in calibrated power over both the expected single random ordering and order-invariant references. Two ingredients are essential: a two-sided base statistic, and a re-estimating parametric bootstrap that restores level under an estimated null and unlocks the gain. The calibrated pooled tests are robust to the departure's shape; no order-invariant reference we compare is: the symmetric-root test collapses on diffuse departures, while the shape-flat chi-squared test trails on concentrated ones. We apply it to a Gaussian foreign-exchange risk model over a decade of daily data on nine currencies, where it detects episodes such as Brexit and COVID. Though we focus on Gaussian nulls, the procedure extends to any null whose conditional distributions can be computed and simulated from.
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BibTeX
@misc{pournaderi2026calibrated,
title = {{Calibrated Order-Randomized Rosenblatt Tests}},
author = {Mehrdad Pournaderi},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.37477},
eprint = {2609.37477},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37477},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Calibrated Order-Randomized Rosenblatt Tests
AU - Mehrdad Pournaderi
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/27
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.37477
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37477
AB - We test whether a multivariate vector X conforms to a specified distribution F, a problem in copula modelling and density forecasting. The Rosenblatt transform reduces it to a test of uniformity, but depends on an arbitrary coordinate ordering that strongly affects power under dependence. We study order randomization: applying the transform under many random orderings and merging the evidence with dependence-robust rules. Reordering conserves the total Mahalanobis signal energy and merely redistributes it, so one ordering is a lucky or unlucky draw. In simulations we observe significant gains in calibrated power over both the expected single random ordering and order-invariant references. Two ingredients are essential: a two-sided base statistic, and a re-estimating parametric bootstrap that restores level under an estimated null and unlocks the gain. The calibrated pooled tests are robust to the departure's shape; no order-invariant reference we compare is: the symmetric-root test collapses on diffuse departures, while the shape-flat chi-squared test trails on concentrated ones. We apply it to a Gaussian foreign-exchange risk model over a decade of daily data on nine currencies, where it detects episodes such as Brexit and COVID. Though we focus on Gaussian nulls, the procedure extends to any null whose conditional distributions can be computed and simulated from.
ER -