Skip to content
DraconiticResearch
Search Sources API
203,234 studies31 sourcesUpdated 59 min ago
PreprintCC BY 4.0arXiv

Advance identification of where the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake would begin

  • K. Z. Nanjo
  • J. B. Rundle
  • D. Iwata
  • J. Izutsu
  • M. Kamogawa
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

Long-term forecasts say how likely a fault segment is to rupture, not where the rupture will begin. The b-value, the slope of the earthquake size distribution, falls as stress rises. After the 2016 Kumamoto sequence in Japan, b-values rose along the ruptured faults but fell in the unruptured central part of the Hinagu fault zone, which we identified in 2019 as where the next rupture was most likely to begin. The 2026 M7.1 Kumamoto earthquake began at the edge of this area, inside the low-b-value volume at 16 km depth. To our knowledge, this is the first starting point of a large earthquake named in print beforehand. The rupture stopped at a fault bend where b-values have stayed low since 2000 and raised Coulomb stress on faults beyond it; the low-b-value zone at this bend is where the next rupture is most likely to begin.

Related

  1. Time-Resolved Surface-Fault Displacement During the 2026 Kumamoto Earthquake From Near-Fault Video
    Bogdan Enescu, Shinji Toda, Yuji Yagi +3
    arXivPreprintarXiv licenceFull textGeophysics & seismologyarXiv
  2. The 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, Japan revisited: Insights from Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Seismicity Parameters
    Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, Muhammed Hossein Mousavi, Marjan Tourani +1
    arXivPreprintarXiv licenceFull textGeophysics & seismologyarXiv
  3. Exploring data science as a tool to advance linked socioecological systems in the context of climate change
    Kathryn Grace, Peter B. Reich, Arun Agrawal +1
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaPeer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Full textClimate sciencePMC
  4. Invited perspective: Uncertainties in natural systems may be uncomfortable, but ignoring them would be absurd
    Warner Marzocchi, Alberto Montanari, the RETURN-uncertainty task force
    Natural Hazards and Earth System SciencesPeer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Full textGeophysics & seismologyCrossref
  5. Graph-based probabilistic earthquake clustering and forecasting in Sumatra
    Giuseppe Petrillo, Stefania Gentili, Luca Dal Zilio
    TectonophysicsPeer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Full textGeophysics & seismologyHAL

Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{nanjo2026advance,
  title = {{Advance identification of where the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake would begin}},
  author = {K. Z. Nanjo and J. B. Rundle and D. Iwata and J. Izutsu and M. Kamogawa},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.39393},
  eprint = {2610.39393},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39393},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Advance identification of where the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake would begin
AU  - K. Z. Nanjo
AU  - J. B. Rundle
AU  - D. Iwata
AU  - J. Izutsu
AU  - M. Kamogawa
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/29
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.39393
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39393
AB  - Long-term forecasts say how likely a fault segment is to rupture, not where the rupture will begin. The b-value, the slope of the earthquake size distribution, falls as stress rises. After the 2016 Kumamoto sequence in Japan, b-values rose along the ruptured faults but fell in the unruptured central part of the Hinagu fault zone, which we identified in 2019 as where the next rupture was most likely to begin. The 2026 M7.1 Kumamoto earthquake began at the edge of this area, inside the low-b-value volume at 16 km depth. To our knowledge, this is the first starting point of a large earthquake named in print beforehand. The rupture stopped at a fault bend where b-values have stayed low since 2000 and raised Coulomb stress on faults beyond it; the low-b-value zone at this bend is where the next rupture is most likely to begin.
ER  -