Hybrid Models for Short-Term Sea-Level Forecasting
Abstract
Accurate tide forecasts are essential for coastal management, navigation, flood-risk reduction, and infrastructure protection. Observed sea level can be decomposed into astronomical and non-astronomical components, the latter mainly driven by meteorological effects. This study investigates a hybrid framework for hourly sea-level forecasting that combines harmonic analysis (HA) for the astronomical component with data-driven models for the non-astronomical contribution. The approach is evaluated at six tide-gauge stations with different tidal regimes: Venice, Trieste, Saint-Malo, Vardø, Nikiski, and Nagasaki. Four data-driven model classes are considered: (i) linear parametric models, represented by autoregressive models with exogenous variables; (ii) functional parametric models, based on functional autoregressive models with exogenous variables; (iii) semiparametric and nonlinear models, including generalized additive models and autoregressive neural networks; and (iv) a semi-functional non-standard k-nearest-neighbours approach combining similarity in recent non-astronomical trajectories and meteorological conditions. Results reveal that hybrid models reduce forecast errors by 52.9-54.9% on average relative to HA. The generalized additive model is the most competitive across locations, while k-nearest neighbours performs best at Saint-Malo and the autoregressive model with exogenous variables is favoured in Nagasaki. For Venice, an economic decision-making case study assesses the operational use of sea-level forecasts in managing the MoSE flood-barrier system.
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BibTeX
@misc{duttilo2026hybrid,
title = {{Hybrid Models for Short-Term Sea-Level Forecasting}},
author = {Pierdomenico Duttilo and Francesco Lisi},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.29827},
eprint = {2609.29827},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29827},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Hybrid Models for Short-Term Sea-Level Forecasting
AU - Pierdomenico Duttilo
AU - Francesco Lisi
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/02
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.29827
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.29827
AB - Accurate tide forecasts are essential for coastal management, navigation, flood-risk reduction, and infrastructure protection. Observed sea level can be decomposed into astronomical and non-astronomical components, the latter mainly driven by meteorological effects. This study investigates a hybrid framework for hourly sea-level forecasting that combines harmonic analysis (HA) for the astronomical component with data-driven models for the non-astronomical contribution. The approach is evaluated at six tide-gauge stations with different tidal regimes: Venice, Trieste, Saint-Malo, Vardø, Nikiski, and Nagasaki. Four data-driven model classes are considered: (i) linear parametric models, represented by autoregressive models with exogenous variables; (ii) functional parametric models, based on functional autoregressive models with exogenous variables; (iii) semiparametric and nonlinear models, including generalized additive models and autoregressive neural networks; and (iv) a semi-functional non-standard k-nearest-neighbours approach combining similarity in recent non-astronomical trajectories and meteorological conditions. Results reveal that hybrid models reduce forecast errors by 52.9-54.9% on average relative to HA. The generalized additive model is the most competitive across locations, while k-nearest neighbours performs best at Saint-Malo and the autoregressive model with exogenous variables is favoured in Nagasaki. For Venice, an economic decision-making case study assesses the operational use of sea-level forecasts in managing the MoSE flood-barrier system.
ER -