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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0PLOS One

Who votes when? Midterm and presidential voters differ primarily by age

  • Brian T. Hamel1
  • Jan E. Leighley2
  • Jonathan Nagler3
  1. 1Department of Political Science, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas, United States of America
  2. 2Department of Government, American University, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
  3. 3Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University, New York, New York, United States of America
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Abstract

Voters in American congressional midterm elections are widely viewed as demographically less representative than those in presidential elections – older, whiter, wealthier, and more educated. Using Current Population Survey data from 1994 through 2024 as well as voter-file data, we test this conventional wisdom and show that it is partly right but too broad. The key difference between midterm and presidential electorates is age: midterms sharply underrepresent young citizens and overrepresent older citizens compared to presidential elections, while differences between the elections by race, income, and education are much smaller. Midterm voters are, above all, older voters.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{hamel2026votes,
  title = {{Who votes when? Midterm and presidential voters differ primarily by age}},
  author = {Brian T. Hamel and Jan E. Leighley and Jonathan Nagler},
  journal = {PLOS One},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0360051},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0360051},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Who votes when? Midterm and presidential voters differ primarily by age
AU  - Brian T. Hamel
AU  - Jan E. Leighley
AU  - Jonathan Nagler
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/14
JO  - PLOS One
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0360051
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0360051
AB  - Voters in American congressional midterm elections are widely viewed as demographically less representative than those in presidential elections – older, whiter, wealthier, and more educated. Using Current Population Survey data from 1994 through 2024 as well as voter-file data, we test this conventional wisdom and show that it is partly right but too broad. The key difference between midterm and presidential electorates is age: midterms sharply underrepresent young citizens and overrepresent older citizens compared to presidential elections, while differences between the elections by race, income, and education are much smaller. Midterm voters are, above all, older voters.
SN  - 1932-6203
ER  -