A Framework for Evaluating Forward Contamination Risk for Bio-ISRU Microorganisms
Abstract
NASA planetary protection policy seeks to avoid inadvertent forward contamination of celestial bodies and backward contamination of Earth during space exploration. For Mars missions, it has historically focused on sterilization of landers and rovers. Current policy provides no framework for assessing the forward contamination risk of missions that deliberately include living organisms and must not be sterilized, such as a human crew, agriculture, or biotechnology for manufacturing and life support. We propose the PRIM (Propagation Restricted, Inert on Mars) framework to evaluate the forward-contamination risk posed by known organisms. Building on the biocontainment literature and probability-of-contamination model, PRIM bounds the ability of an organism released from a worst-case off-nominal event to sustain growth on the Martian surface at a probability under P_c <= 10^-4 using independent single-stressor propagation assays. We apply the PRIM framework to two engineered Mars biological in situ resource utilization chassis organisms, using low water activity and carbon starvation to qualify them for low forward contamination risk even at high bioburden, and outline how to extend the assays to phototrophs and anaerobes. PRIM offers a path to flight-qualify living organisms for Mars based on laboratory assays rather than bioburden alone. This enables biological life support infrastructure for a sustained presence on Mars while keeping forward contamination risk demonstrably low.
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BibTeX
@misc{nattermann2026framework,
title = {{A Framework for Evaluating Forward Contamination Risk for Bio-ISRU Microorganisms}},
author = {Una Nattermann and Devon A. Stork and Tom Pedersen and Nathan D. Hicks and Jordan E. Mancuso and Keren Isaev and Max G. Schubert and Fatima R. Martin and Jonathan Liu and Harley Greene and Edward Sukarto and Erika A. DeBenedictis},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.12015},
eprint = {2609.12015},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12015},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A Framework for Evaluating Forward Contamination Risk for Bio-ISRU Microorganisms
AU - Una Nattermann
AU - Devon A. Stork
AU - Tom Pedersen
AU - Nathan D. Hicks
AU - Jordan E. Mancuso
AU - Keren Isaev
AU - Max G. Schubert
AU - Fatima R. Martin
AU - Jonathan Liu
AU - Harley Greene
AU - Edward Sukarto
AU - Erika A. DeBenedictis
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/27
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.12015
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.12015
AB - NASA planetary protection policy seeks to avoid inadvertent forward contamination of celestial bodies and backward contamination of Earth during space exploration. For Mars missions, it has historically focused on sterilization of landers and rovers. Current policy provides no framework for assessing the forward contamination risk of missions that deliberately include living organisms and must not be sterilized, such as a human crew, agriculture, or biotechnology for manufacturing and life support. We propose the PRIM (Propagation Restricted, Inert on Mars) framework to evaluate the forward-contamination risk posed by known organisms. Building on the biocontainment literature and probability-of-contamination model, PRIM bounds the ability of an organism released from a worst-case off-nominal event to sustain growth on the Martian surface at a probability under P_c <= 10^-4 using independent single-stressor propagation assays. We apply the PRIM framework to two engineered Mars biological in situ resource utilization chassis organisms, using low water activity and carbon starvation to qualify them for low forward contamination risk even at high bioburden, and outline how to extend the assays to phototrophs and anaerobes. PRIM offers a path to flight-qualify living organisms for Mars based on laboratory assays rather than bioburden alone. This enables biological life support infrastructure for a sustained presence on Mars while keeping forward contamination risk demonstrably low.
ER -