Commercial building decarbonization across countries: Future emission trajectories and mitigation priorities

@misc{tang2026commercial,
  title = {{Commercial building decarbonization across countries: Future emission trajectories and mitigation priorities}},
  author = {Qinwen Tang and Tianyi Wang and Nan Zhou and Minda Ma},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.26696},
  eprint = {2610.26696},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.26696},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

TY  - UNPB
TI  - Commercial building decarbonization across countries: Future emission trajectories and mitigation priorities
AU  - Qinwen Tang
AU  - Tianyi Wang
AU  - Nan Zhou
AU  - Minda Ma
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/19
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.26696
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.26696
AB  - With energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remaining at high levels, decarbonizing commercial building operations across key economies is critical for achieving global climate targets. This study assesses future operational carbon trajectories, mitigation potential, and the driving factors of this potential in commercial building operations across 16 countries from 2024 to 2060 by combining a Kaya-based emission model and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The key findings indicate that (1) under the business-as-usual scenario, China's commercial building operational carbon emissions are projected to peak at 1150 (+-120) million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) in 2033 (+-5 years), while the remaining countries exhibit differentiated carbon lock-in levels, with the highest level in the United States at 470 (+-89) MtCO2. (2) The total emission reduction potential increases from 352 MtCO2 in 2030 to 1119 MtCO2 in 2050 and stabilizes at 1123 MtCO2 in 2060, with China, the United States, and Japan contributing 84.7%-88.9% of the total potential. (3) By 2060, the mitigation potential from energy intensity reduction is concentrated mainly in China and the United States, reaching 52 and 32 MtCO2, respectively; end-use decomposition further identifies space heating and appliances as key targets for decarbonizing commercial building operations. In summary, this study characterizes future operational carbon trajectories and clarifies the drivers and end-use priorities of mitigation potential in commercial building operations, providing cross-country evidence for differentiated strategies for long-term commercial building decarbonization.
ER  -