Increasing dengue outbreaks in temperate Brazil are associated with Aedes aegypti invasion and infestation levels
Abstract
Dengue fever, caused by dengue virus (DENV), is one of the most significant mosquito-borne diseases globally, with increasing risk due to the expansion of Aedes vectors into subtropical and temperate zones. Brazil accounted for 70% of dengue cases reported worldwide in 2024, and the virus has recently become endemic in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. Here, we integrate entomological, epidemiological and environmental data and generate complementary genomic data to investigate DENV dynamics in Southern Brazil from 2015 to 2023. During this period, Aedes aegypti expanded across state municipalities, with a marked increase in dengue cases from 2020 onward. Nearly half of the municipalities surpassed the incidence threshold of ≥20 cases per 100,000 residents per year by 2023, indicating endemic transmission. Genomic analysis of 665 new DENV genomes is consistent with the local persistence of viral lineages across years, driving seasonal outbreaks. Moreover, Northwest and Metropolitan regions are identified as key hubs for viral spread within the Rio Grande do Sul state. These findings highlight the north-to-south expansion of dengue into temperate regions, emphasizing the urgent need for intensification of vector control and surveillance in newly endemic areas to mitigate dengue burden in a mostly naive human population.
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BibTeX
@article{bermann2026increasing,
title = {{Increasing dengue outbreaks in temperate Brazil are associated with Aedes aegypti invasion and infestation levels}},
author = {Thales de Lima Bermann and Danielly Alves Mendes Barbosa and Tatiana Schaffer Gregianini and Fernanda Marques Godinho and Ludmila Fiorenzano Baethgen and Fernanda Letícia Martiny and Erica Bortoli Möllmann and Amanda Pellenz Ruivo and Franciellen Machado dos Santos and Caroline do Nascimento Ferreira and Gustavo Barbosa de Lima and Filipe Zimmer Dezordi and Júlia Gabriela Caldas Amancio and Milena Bauermann and Taina Machado Selayaran and Elgion Lucio da Silva Loreto and Felipe Gomes Naveca and André Luiz Sá de Oliveira and Ana Beatriz Gorini da Veiga and Marcelo Henrique Santos Paiva and Tulio de Lima Campos and Andreia Carina Turchetto-Zolet and Gonzalo Bello and Daniel Antunes Maciel Villela and Matheus Filgueira Bezerra and Luiz Felipe Valter de Oliveira and Rafael Maciel-de-Freitas and Tiago Gräf and Richard Steiner Salvato and Gabriel da Luz Wallau},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-78978-9},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78978-9},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Increasing dengue outbreaks in temperate Brazil are associated with Aedes aegypti invasion and infestation levels
AU - Thales de Lima Bermann
AU - Danielly Alves Mendes Barbosa
AU - Tatiana Schaffer Gregianini
AU - Fernanda Marques Godinho
AU - Ludmila Fiorenzano Baethgen
AU - Fernanda Letícia Martiny
AU - Erica Bortoli Möllmann
AU - Amanda Pellenz Ruivo
AU - Franciellen Machado dos Santos
AU - Caroline do Nascimento Ferreira
AU - Gustavo Barbosa de Lima
AU - Filipe Zimmer Dezordi
AU - Júlia Gabriela Caldas Amancio
AU - Milena Bauermann
AU - Taina Machado Selayaran
AU - Elgion Lucio da Silva Loreto
AU - Felipe Gomes Naveca
AU - André Luiz Sá de Oliveira
AU - Ana Beatriz Gorini da Veiga
AU - Marcelo Henrique Santos Paiva
AU - Tulio de Lima Campos
AU - Andreia Carina Turchetto-Zolet
AU - Gonzalo Bello
AU - Daniel Antunes Maciel Villela
AU - Matheus Filgueira Bezerra
AU - Luiz Felipe Valter de Oliveira
AU - Rafael Maciel-de-Freitas
AU - Tiago Gräf
AU - Richard Steiner Salvato
AU - Gabriel da Luz Wallau
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/27
JO - Nature Communications
DO - 10.1038/s41467-026-78978-9
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78978-9
AB - Dengue fever, caused by dengue virus (DENV), is one of the most significant mosquito-borne diseases globally, with increasing risk due to the expansion of Aedes vectors into subtropical and temperate zones. Brazil accounted for 70% of dengue cases reported worldwide in 2024, and the virus has recently become endemic in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul. Here, we integrate entomological, epidemiological and environmental data and generate complementary genomic data to investigate DENV dynamics in Southern Brazil from 2015 to 2023. During this period, Aedes aegypti expanded across state municipalities, with a marked increase in dengue cases from 2020 onward. Nearly half of the municipalities surpassed the incidence threshold of ≥20 cases per 100,000 residents per year by 2023, indicating endemic transmission. Genomic analysis of 665 new DENV genomes is consistent with the local persistence of viral lineages across years, driving seasonal outbreaks. Moreover, Northwest and Metropolitan regions are identified as key hubs for viral spread within the Rio Grande do Sul state. These findings highlight the north-to-south expansion of dengue into temperate regions, emphasizing the urgent need for intensification of vector control and surveillance in newly endemic areas to mitigate dengue burden in a mostly naive human population.
SN - 2041-1723
ER -