Dynamical Insights into the Current Control Strategies for Chikungunya
Abstract
This paper addresses the challenge that, under China's current mosquito-control policy for chikungunya---\textit{clearing stagnant water, killing adult mosquitoes, and preventing bites}---epidemics can still recur and continue to rise. By constructing a vector--host dynamical model that incorporates asymptomatic infections and a screening rate, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the epidemic peak value and peak time, and reveal the intrinsic link between short-term transients and long-term outcomes. Simulations across three scenarios---human-seeded, mosquito-seeded, and joint human--mosquito-seeded---show that (i) even when the vector population is effectively suppressed, asymptomatic carriers can still sustain transmission; (ii) the effect of the screening rate on the peak time is non-monotonic, and there exists a critical threshold that maximizes the delay of the epidemic; and (iii) moderate screening can both suppress the first wave and avoid leaving an excessively large susceptible pool that would amplify subsequent waves. Accordingly, we upgrade the original policy to a \textit{Twelve-character} strategy for prevention, mitigation, and control---\textit{clearing stagnant water, killing adult mosquitoes, preventing bites, and screening cases early}---providing theoretical support for chikungunya and other mosquito-borne diseases.
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BibTeX
@misc{zheng2026dynamical,
title = {{Dynamical Insights into the Current Control Strategies for Chikungunya}},
author = {Bo Zheng and Xingzhi Chen and Jianglong Xiao and Kai Wang and Jianshe Yu and Huaiping Zhu},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.08856},
eprint = {2610.08856},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08856},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Dynamical Insights into the Current Control Strategies for Chikungunya
AU - Bo Zheng
AU - Xingzhi Chen
AU - Jianglong Xiao
AU - Kai Wang
AU - Jianshe Yu
AU - Huaiping Zhu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/12
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.08856
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.08856
AB - This paper addresses the challenge that, under China's current mosquito-control policy for chikungunya---\textit{clearing stagnant water, killing adult mosquitoes, and preventing bites}---epidemics can still recur and continue to rise. By constructing a vector--host dynamical model that incorporates asymptomatic infections and a screening rate, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the epidemic peak value and peak time, and reveal the intrinsic link between short-term transients and long-term outcomes. Simulations across three scenarios---human-seeded, mosquito-seeded, and joint human--mosquito-seeded---show that (i) even when the vector population is effectively suppressed, asymptomatic carriers can still sustain transmission; (ii) the effect of the screening rate on the peak time is non-monotonic, and there exists a critical threshold that maximizes the delay of the epidemic; and (iii) moderate screening can both suppress the first wave and avoid leaving an excessively large susceptible pool that would amplify subsequent waves. Accordingly, we upgrade the original policy to a \textit{Twelve-character} strategy for prevention, mitigation, and control---\textit{clearing stagnant water, killing adult mosquitoes, preventing bites, and screening cases early}---providing theoretical support for chikungunya and other mosquito-borne diseases.
ER -