Regional economic impacts and emission responses under solar radiation modification
- 1University of Oslo
- 2Yale University
Abstract
Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system's response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the spatial distribution of economic impacts has received less attention. In this study, we use NorESM2-DIAM---an Earth System Model coupled to a high-resolution integrated assessment model---to assess the economic impacts, measured in GDP per capita, in an idealised SRM scenario where incoming solar radiation is reduced by 1%. Our results suggest that, relative to a baseline without SRM, most countries experience economic gains under SRM, with only a few countries facing negative impacts. Low-income countries tend to see the largest benefits, reducing disparities in GDP per capita across countries relative to the baseline. However, reduced damages and smaller disparities in GDP per capita are accompanied by a “moral hazard” effect, in that SRM leads to higher emissions, which may in turn cause additional adverse effects not captured here. These findings highlight potential trade-offs between economic benefits, the distribution of economic impacts, and increased emissions relevant for SRM governance.
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BibTeX
@article{bjordal2026regional,
title = {{Regional economic impacts and emission responses under solar radiation modification}},
author = {Jenny Bjordal and Evelien van Dijk and Henri Cornec and Anthony A. Smith, Jr. and Trude Storelvmo},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeb146},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb146},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Regional economic impacts and emission responses under solar radiation modification
AU - Jenny Bjordal
AU - Evelien van Dijk
AU - Henri Cornec
AU - Anthony A. Smith, Jr.
AU - Trude Storelvmo
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/07
JO - Environmental Research Letters
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb146
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb146
AB - Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system's response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the spatial distribution of economic impacts has received less attention. In this study, we use NorESM2-DIAM---an Earth System Model coupled to a high-resolution integrated assessment model---to assess the economic impacts, measured in GDP per capita, in an idealised SRM scenario where incoming solar radiation is reduced by 1%. Our results suggest that, relative to a baseline without SRM, most countries experience economic gains under SRM, with only a few countries facing negative impacts. Low-income countries tend to see the largest benefits, reducing disparities in GDP per capita across countries relative to the baseline. However, reduced damages and smaller disparities in GDP per capita are accompanied by a “moral hazard” effect, in that SRM leads to higher emissions, which may in turn cause additional adverse effects not captured here. These findings highlight potential trade-offs between economic benefits, the distribution of economic impacts, and increased emissions relevant for SRM governance.
SN - 1748-9326
ER -