Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden of Female Breast Cancer in China and Other G20 Countries, 1990-2050: A Comparative Global Burden of Disease 2023 Analysis.
- 1Department of Breast Surgery, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100021, People's Republic of China.
- 2Department of Colorectal Surgery, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100021, People's Republic of China.
Abstract
Objective
This study analyzes the burden of female breast cancer in China and other G20 countries from 1990 to 2023, characterizes its trends and risk factors, and projects the burden to 2050.Methods
Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates, we evaluated age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR), and trends (estimated annual percentage change, EAPC); applied Das Gupta decomposition, sociodemographic index (SDI) gradient, attributable-risk, and socioeconomic-inequality analyses, with stratification by premenopausal (20-54 years) and postmenopausal (≥55 years) age groups; and used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast to 2050.Results
In 2023, China's age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 31.6 per 100,000, the second lowest among G20 members (range: India 29.4 to France 114.6), yet China recorded the largest absolute burden (342,725 cases and 76,589 deaths). Between 1990 and 2023, China's age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) declined far more rapidly than in the rest of the G20 (EAPC -1.92 vs -0.23), whereas its ASIR rose only modestly (EAPC 0.40 vs 1.05); China's MIR fell to the eighth lowest by 2023. Across members, SDI correlated positively with ASIR (r = 0.74) but inversely with MIR (r = -0.84). Decomposition attributed China's rising deaths chiefly to population aging, partly offset by declining age-specific rates. Rates in the postmenopausal age group exceeded those in the premenopausal age group in all 19 members. By 2050, China's ASIR is projected to remain broadly stable, while absolute cases rise by approximately 131%.Conclusions
Across the G20, female breast-cancer burden is undergoing an epidemiological transition: absolute burden is rising as populations grow and age, while age-standardized mortality is declining in most members, with marked heterogeneity across the G20. The burden is shifting toward older women in the postmenopausal age group, while the mortality-to-incidence ratio remains higher in lower-SDI members. These patterns argue for G20-coordinated, equity-focused prevention and survival care.
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BibTeX
@article{dong2026trends,
title = {{Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden of Female Breast Cancer in China and Other G20 Countries, 1990-2050: A Comparative Global Burden of Disease 2023 Analysis.}},
author = {Xubin Dong and Xiyu Kang and Zeyu Wu and Guangyu Li and Jiaxian Yue and Jiaxiang Liu and Qingyao Shang and Tianxiao Wang and Dongmin Yang and Jiayi Ma and Huiming Wu and Chenxuan Yang and Xin Wang},
journal = {International journal of women's health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.2147/ijwh.s648805},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42899185},
note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Trends, Risk Factors, and Future Burden of Female Breast Cancer in China and Other G20 Countries, 1990-2050: A Comparative Global Burden of Disease 2023 Analysis.
AU - Xubin Dong
AU - Xiyu Kang
AU - Zeyu Wu
AU - Guangyu Li
AU - Jiaxian Yue
AU - Jiaxiang Liu
AU - Qingyao Shang
AU - Tianxiao Wang
AU - Dongmin Yang
AU - Jiayi Ma
AU - Huiming Wu
AU - Chenxuan Yang
AU - Xin Wang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/15
JO - International journal of women's health
DO - 10.2147/ijwh.s648805
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42899185
AB - Objective This study analyzes the burden of female breast cancer in China and other G20 countries from 1990 to 2023, characterizes its trends and risk factors, and projects the burden to 2050.Methods Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates, we evaluated age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR), and trends (estimated annual percentage change, EAPC); applied Das Gupta decomposition, sociodemographic index (SDI) gradient, attributable-risk, and socioeconomic-inequality analyses, with stratification by premenopausal (20-54 years) and postmenopausal (≥55 years) age groups; and used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast to 2050.Results In 2023, China's age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 31.6 per 100,000, the second lowest among G20 members (range: India 29.4 to France 114.6), yet China recorded the largest absolute burden (342,725 cases and 76,589 deaths). Between 1990 and 2023, China's age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) declined far more rapidly than in the rest of the G20 (EAPC -1.92 vs -0.23), whereas its ASIR rose only modestly (EAPC 0.40 vs 1.05); China's MIR fell to the eighth lowest by 2023. Across members, SDI correlated positively with ASIR (r = 0.74) but inversely with MIR (r = -0.84). Decomposition attributed China's rising deaths chiefly to population aging, partly offset by declining age-specific rates. Rates in the postmenopausal age group exceeded those in the premenopausal age group in all 19 members. By 2050, China's ASIR is projected to remain broadly stable, while absolute cases rise by approximately 131%.Conclusions Across the G20, female breast-cancer burden is undergoing an epidemiological transition: absolute burden is rising as populations grow and age, while age-standardized mortality is declining in most members, with marked heterogeneity across the G20. The burden is shifting toward older women in the postmenopausal age group, while the mortality-to-incidence ratio remains higher in lower-SDI members. These patterns argue for G20-coordinated, equity-focused prevention and survival care.
SN - 1179-1411
ER -