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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Annals of Gastroenterological Surgery

Prediction of Long‐Term Prognosis in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using the National Clinical Database Risk Calculator

  • Mariko Tsukagoshi1
  • Kenichiro Araki1
  • Norio Kubo1
  • Takamichi Igarashi1
  • Shunsuke Kawai1
  • Kei Hagiwara1
  • Kouki Hoshino1
  • Ryo Muranushi1
  • Ken Shirabe1
  1. 1Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of General Surgical Science Gunma University Graduate School of Medicine Maebashi Gunma Japan
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Abstract

Aim: To determine the value of the National Clinical Database (NCD) risk calculator for predicting surgical outcomes and long‐term prognosis in patients undergoing resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 210 patients with HCC who underwent initial hepatic resection between January 2016 and December 2022. We calculated predicted incidence of surgery‐related mortality (predicted mortality rate) using the NCD risk calculator. We assessed the relationship between predicted mortality rate and clinicopathological factors, including their relationship with long‐term prognosis.

Results: A predicted mortality rate of ≥ 3% significantly correlated with worse recurrence‐free survival and overall survival (OS), with a high‐risk group showing increased blood loss, longer hospital stays, and higher severe complication rates. Multivariate analysis identified predicted mortality rate of ≥ 3% as an independent prognostic indicator for poor OS, alongside male sex and microvascular invasion.

Conclusion: The NCD risk calculator showed potential to predict not only short‐term outcomes but also long‐term prognosis in patients with HCC undergoing resection. The NCD risk calculator may be a valuable complementary tool for decision‐making about liver resection in patients with HCC.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{tsukagoshi2026prediction,
  title = {{Prediction of Long‐Term Prognosis in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using the National Clinical Database Risk Calculator}},
  author = {Mariko Tsukagoshi and Kenichiro Araki and Norio Kubo and Takamichi Igarashi and Shunsuke Kawai and Kei Hagiwara and Kouki Hoshino and Ryo Muranushi and Ken Shirabe},
  journal = {Annals of Gastroenterological Surgery},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1002/ags3.70256},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ags3.70256},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Prediction of Long‐Term Prognosis in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using the National Clinical Database Risk Calculator
AU  - Mariko Tsukagoshi
AU  - Kenichiro Araki
AU  - Norio Kubo
AU  - Takamichi Igarashi
AU  - Shunsuke Kawai
AU  - Kei Hagiwara
AU  - Kouki Hoshino
AU  - Ryo Muranushi
AU  - Ken Shirabe
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/26
JO  - Annals of Gastroenterological Surgery
DO  - 10.1002/ags3.70256
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1002/ags3.70256
AB  - Aim: To determine the value of the National Clinical Database (NCD) risk calculator for predicting surgical outcomes and long‐term prognosis in patients undergoing resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).  Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 210 patients with HCC who underwent initial hepatic resection between January 2016 and December 2022. We calculated predicted incidence of surgery‐related mortality (predicted mortality rate) using the NCD risk calculator. We assessed the relationship between predicted mortality rate and clinicopathological factors, including their relationship with long‐term prognosis.  Results: A predicted mortality rate of ≥ 3% significantly correlated with worse recurrence‐free survival and overall survival (OS), with a high‐risk group showing increased blood loss, longer hospital stays, and higher severe complication rates. Multivariate analysis identified predicted mortality rate of ≥ 3% as an independent prognostic indicator for poor OS, alongside male sex and microvascular invasion.  Conclusion: The NCD risk calculator showed potential to predict not only short‐term outcomes but also long‐term prognosis in patients with HCC undergoing resection. The NCD risk calculator may be a valuable complementary tool for decision‐making about liver resection in patients with HCC.
SN  - 2475-0328
ER  -