How ENSO controls the propagation speed of seasonal onsets in Java–Bali: satellite rainfall evidence over two decades
5 affiliations
- 1AResearch Centre for Climate and Atmosphere (PRIMA), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bandung, Indonesia.BFaculty of Agriculture, Universitas Padjadjaran (UNPAD), Sumedang, Indonesia.
- 2CFaculty of Agriculture, Gadjah Mada University (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
- 3BFaculty of Agriculture, Universitas Padjadjaran (UNPAD), Sumedang, Indonesia.
- 4AResearch Centre for Climate and Atmosphere (PRIMA), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bandung, Indonesia.
- 5DResearch Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Cyber Security (PRKAKS), National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bandung, Indonesia.
Abstract
Indonesia, as a tropical maritime continent, exhibits a seasonal rainfall pattern influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in the Wet Season Onset (WSO) and Dry Season Onset (DSO) have broad implications for agriculture, water resources and disaster mitigation. This study aims to analyse the climatology and interannual variability of WSO and DSO over the Java–Bali region (104–116°E), using satellite-based rainfall data (1998–2024). The results show a clear monsoonal pattern, with maximum (minimum) rainfall from December to February (June to August). Climatologically, WSO (DSO) propagates eastward (westward) at ~21 km day–¹ (19 km day–¹) with an onset difference of ~57 (64) days between western Java and Bali. WSO is coherent across all four regions, whereas DSO is coherent across three Java regions (weaker coherence with Bali), consistent with a stronger and more spatially uniform ENSO relationship for WSO. Despite the ENSO predictability barrier, DSO remains significantly related to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), with earlier DSO associated more strongly with the developing positive ENSO than with the decaying event from the preceding wet season. El Niño accelerates westward propagation of DSO, whereas La Niña slows DSO and WSO propagation. For WSO, El Niño delays the onset timing with propagation speed comparable with climatology, whereas La Niña advances onset with slower progression. Hence, ENSO affects seasonal onset timing and modulates the longitudinal propagation pace of monsoonal systems. These findings highlight monsoon spatio-temporal propagation as a key atmospheric response to ENSO over Java–Bali, with implications for climate prediction, agricultural planning and hydrometeorological risk management.
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BibTeX
@article{satyawardhana2026enso,
title = {{How ENSO controls the propagation speed of seasonal onsets in Java–Bali: satellite rainfall evidence over two decades}},
author = {Haries Satyawardhana and Andi Syahid Muttaqin and Ruminta and Risyanto and Trismidianto and Didi Satiadi and Gammamerdianti and Wendi Harjupa and Ina Juaeni and Alfan Sukmana Praja and Dita Fatria Andarini and Elfira Saufina and Fadli Nauval and Candra Nur Ihsan and Adi Witono and Ibnu Fathrio and Tiin Sinatra and Anis Purwaningsih and Erma Yulihastin and Andrea Taschetto},
journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1071/es25071},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1071/es25071},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - How ENSO controls the propagation speed of seasonal onsets in Java–Bali: satellite rainfall evidence over two decades
AU - Haries Satyawardhana
AU - Andi Syahid Muttaqin
AU - Ruminta
AU - Risyanto
AU - Trismidianto
AU - Didi Satiadi
AU - Gammamerdianti
AU - Wendi Harjupa
AU - Ina Juaeni
AU - Alfan Sukmana Praja
AU - Dita Fatria Andarini
AU - Elfira Saufina
AU - Fadli Nauval
AU - Candra Nur Ihsan
AU - Adi Witono
AU - Ibnu Fathrio
AU - Tiin Sinatra
AU - Anis Purwaningsih
AU - Erma Yulihastin
AU - Andrea Taschetto
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
DO - 10.1071/es25071
UR - https://doi.org/10.1071/es25071
AB - Indonesia, as a tropical maritime continent, exhibits a seasonal rainfall pattern influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Variations in the Wet Season Onset (WSO) and Dry Season Onset (DSO) have broad implications for agriculture, water resources and disaster mitigation. This study aims to analyse the climatology and interannual variability of WSO and DSO over the Java–Bali region (104–116°E), using satellite-based rainfall data (1998–2024). The results show a clear monsoonal pattern, with maximum (minimum) rainfall from December to February (June to August). Climatologically, WSO (DSO) propagates eastward (westward) at ~21 km day–¹ (19 km day–¹) with an onset difference of ~57 (64) days between western Java and Bali. WSO is coherent across all four regions, whereas DSO is coherent across three Java regions (weaker coherence with Bali), consistent with a stronger and more spatially uniform ENSO relationship for WSO. Despite the ENSO predictability barrier, DSO remains significantly related to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), with earlier DSO associated more strongly with the developing positive ENSO than with the decaying event from the preceding wet season. El Niño accelerates westward propagation of DSO, whereas La Niña slows DSO and WSO propagation. For WSO, El Niño delays the onset timing with propagation speed comparable with climatology, whereas La Niña advances onset with slower progression. Hence, ENSO affects seasonal onset timing and modulates the longitudinal propagation pace of monsoonal systems. These findings highlight monsoon spatio-temporal propagation as a key atmospheric response to ENSO over Java–Bali, with implications for climate prediction, agricultural planning and hydrometeorological risk management.
SN - 2206-5865
ER -