Future reef island habitability under climate change and the role of governance
Abstract
Reef island habitability is increasingly threatened by climate change through amplified risks to land, freshwater and food resources. While reef islands share common biophysical vulnerabilities, the capacity of their communities to effectively adapt to climate change is strongly influenced by governance arrangements, including through national institutions and external cooperative frameworks. This study identifies four broad governance types across Indo-Pacific reef island polities, based on sovereign status and island and territorial geography. These types vary in their autonomy, the degree and strength of cross-governance linkages, and local and external cooperation. Eight in-depth case studies representing the four types are analysed and demonstrate that no single governance type can ensure effective adaptation outcomes for land, water and food futures. Instead, the nuances of specific governance systems -often shaped by colonial legaciesshape their ability to mobilise awareness, resources, and authority to address climate risks. National climate change instruments alone also rarely translate into actionable adaptation plans due to limited baseline data and/or short-term priorities overshadowing longterm planning. The most effective adaptation is associated with robust institutions, strong cross-scale governance linkages, and the meaningful inclusion of local and traditional authorities in decision-making. Regional cooperation, particularly in the Pacific, has enhanced access to data, finance, and shared learning, while international partnerships support implementation. Ensuring the future habitability of reef islands requires a shift from project-based interventions to forward-looking governance that prioritizes equity, cooperation, and long-term institutional continuity, with adaptation efforts commensurate with the scale and urgency of climate change impacts.
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BibTeX
@article{perry2026future,
title = {{Future reef island habitability under climate change and the role of governance}},
author = {Chris T Perry and Rohan Arthur and Tom Spencer and Johann Bell and Mayukh Dey and Liam Saddington and Arthur Webb and Ian White and Teresa Alcoverro and Virginie K.E. Duvat and Jagdish Krishnaswamy and Alexandre K Magnan},
journal = {Current Research in Environmental Sustainability},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1016/j.crsust.2026.100379},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05776177v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Future reef island habitability under climate change and the role of governance
AU - Chris T Perry
AU - Rohan Arthur
AU - Tom Spencer
AU - Johann Bell
AU - Mayukh Dey
AU - Liam Saddington
AU - Arthur Webb
AU - Ian White
AU - Teresa Alcoverro
AU - Virginie K.E. Duvat
AU - Jagdish Krishnaswamy
AU - Alexandre K Magnan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/30
JO - Current Research in Environmental Sustainability
DO - 10.1016/j.crsust.2026.100379
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05776177v1
AB - Reef island habitability is increasingly threatened by climate change through amplified risks to land, freshwater and food resources. While reef islands share common biophysical vulnerabilities, the capacity of their communities to effectively adapt to climate change is strongly influenced by governance arrangements, including through national institutions and external cooperative frameworks. This study identifies four broad governance types across Indo-Pacific reef island polities, based on sovereign status and island and territorial geography. These types vary in their autonomy, the degree and strength of cross-governance linkages, and local and external cooperation. Eight in-depth case studies representing the four types are analysed and demonstrate that no single governance type can ensure effective adaptation outcomes for land, water and food futures. Instead, the nuances of specific governance systems -often shaped by colonial legaciesshape their ability to mobilise awareness, resources, and authority to address climate risks. National climate change instruments alone also rarely translate into actionable adaptation plans due to limited baseline data and/or short-term priorities overshadowing longterm planning. The most effective adaptation is associated with robust institutions, strong cross-scale governance linkages, and the meaningful inclusion of local and traditional authorities in decision-making. Regional cooperation, particularly in the Pacific, has enhanced access to data, finance, and shared learning, while international partnerships support implementation. Ensuring the future habitability of reef islands requires a shift from project-based interventions to forward-looking governance that prioritizes equity, cooperation, and long-term institutional continuity, with adaptation efforts commensurate with the scale and urgency of climate change impacts.
SN - 2666-0490
ER -