Climate, Seasons, and Skin Cancer: A 16-Year Retrospective Study of Trends in New Zealand.
- 1Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand.
- 2Skin Surgery Clinic, Auckland, New Zealand.
- 3School of Medicine, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
Abstract
Introduction
Skin cancer remains a major public health concern in New Zealand, where high ultra-violet (UV) radiation and a predominantly fair-skinned population contribute to some of the world's highest incidence rates. While national prevalence has recently been documented, less is known about how skin cancer incidence fluctuates across months, seasons, and years, or how these temporal patterns relate to short-term environmental factors such as UV index, temperature, and rainfall.Objectives
This study aimed to quantify seasonal and long-term trends in basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and malignant melanoma (MM) diagnosed between 2009 and 2024 and to examine their associations with environmental conditions.Methods
A retrospective analysis of 24,653 biopsy-confirmed cases was conducted using clinical records from a New Zealand skin cancer clinic over a 16-year period. Monthly incidence rates were modelled with negative-binomial regression incorporating Fourier terms to test for seasonality and long-term temporal trends were evaluated. Lagged Pearson correlations (0-6 months) were calculated to assess associations between cancer incidence and environmental variables (UV, temperature, rainfall).Results
BCC and SCC showed significant seasonal peaks in late summer and early autumn, demonstrating a delayed but consistent rise following peak UV exposure over summer months, while MM displayed minimal or inconsistent seasonality. These results may help public health advice and prevention measures..Conclusions
This 16-year analysis highlights distinct seasonal and long-term temporal dimensions in skin cancer incidence within New Zealand's high-UV environment, with clear increases in non-melanoma skin cancer incidence (but not melanoma incidence) following summer months.
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BibTeX
@article{paul2026climate,
title = {{Climate, Seasons, and Skin Cancer: A 16-Year Retrospective Study of Trends in New Zealand.}},
author = {Sharad P Paul and Suresh Lama and Mahsa Mohaghegh and Allanah Knight},
journal = {Dermatology practical \& conceptual},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.5826/dpc.1603a7139},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42858426},
note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate, Seasons, and Skin Cancer: A 16-Year Retrospective Study of Trends in New Zealand.
AU - Sharad P Paul
AU - Suresh Lama
AU - Mahsa Mohaghegh
AU - Allanah Knight
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/31
JO - Dermatology practical & conceptual
DO - 10.5826/dpc.1603a7139
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42858426
AB - Introduction Skin cancer remains a major public health concern in New Zealand, where high ultra-violet (UV) radiation and a predominantly fair-skinned population contribute to some of the world's highest incidence rates. While national prevalence has recently been documented, less is known about how skin cancer incidence fluctuates across months, seasons, and years, or how these temporal patterns relate to short-term environmental factors such as UV index, temperature, and rainfall.Objectives This study aimed to quantify seasonal and long-term trends in basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and malignant melanoma (MM) diagnosed between 2009 and 2024 and to examine their associations with environmental conditions.Methods A retrospective analysis of 24,653 biopsy-confirmed cases was conducted using clinical records from a New Zealand skin cancer clinic over a 16-year period. Monthly incidence rates were modelled with negative-binomial regression incorporating Fourier terms to test for seasonality and long-term temporal trends were evaluated. Lagged Pearson correlations (0-6 months) were calculated to assess associations between cancer incidence and environmental variables (UV, temperature, rainfall).Results BCC and SCC showed significant seasonal peaks in late summer and early autumn, demonstrating a delayed but consistent rise following peak UV exposure over summer months, while MM displayed minimal or inconsistent seasonality. These results may help public health advice and prevention measures..Conclusions This 16-year analysis highlights distinct seasonal and long-term temporal dimensions in skin cancer incidence within New Zealand's high-UV environment, with clear increases in non-melanoma skin cancer incidence (but not melanoma incidence) following summer months.
SN - 2160-9381
ER -