Lunar South Pole Resource Prospectivity: A Multi- Instrument Framework and a Testable Model for Heterogeneous Volatile Emplacement
Abstract
Water ice and other volatiles in lunar south-polar permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) are established exploration targets, but their abundance, geometry, continuity, and depth distribution remain incompletely constrained. We present a physically informed, AI-assisted framework integrating neutron-derived hydrogen abundance, Diviner thermal stability, radar circular polarization ratio (CPR), and gamma-ray geochemical context into a relative resource-prospectivity index for 85–90°S. Variables are normalized to 0–1 using physically meaningful bounds and combined with weights prioritizing hydrogen and thermal stability. The product is an exploration ranking, not a calibrated probability of ice. We then evaluate a testable depositional hypothesis: “tumultuoites,” defined here as heterogeneous volatile-bearing regolith deposits formed by rapid impact-related vapor-particle transport, mixing, condensation, freezing, and mass movement within thermally stable cold traps. The hypothesis predicts strong lateral and vertical variability, including localized ice-rich lenses or aggregates embedded in lower-grade regolith and possible spatial discordance among hydrogen, thermal, and radar signatures. These predictions can be tested by rover transects, neutron prospecting, repeated shallow drilling, spectroscopy, mass spectrometry, and thermal measurements. The approach reframes lunar polar resource assessment from a search for average ice abundance toward evaluation of resource geometry, heterogeneity, and extractability.
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BibTeX
@misc{wyatt2026lunar,
title = {{Lunar South Pole Resource Prospectivity: A Multi- Instrument Framework and a Testable Model for Heterogeneous Volatile Emplacement}},
author = {Douglas E Wyatt},
howpublished = {EarthArXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.31223/x53235},
url = {https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15382/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Lunar South Pole Resource Prospectivity: A Multi- Instrument Framework and a Testable Model for Heterogeneous Volatile Emplacement
AU - Douglas E Wyatt
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/06
PB - EarthArXiv
DO - 10.31223/x53235
UR - https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15382/
AB - Water ice and other volatiles in lunar south-polar permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) are established exploration targets, but their abundance, geometry, continuity, and depth distribution remain incompletely constrained. We present a physically informed, AI-assisted framework integrating neutron-derived hydrogen abundance, Diviner thermal stability, radar circular polarization ratio (CPR), and gamma-ray geochemical context into a relative resource-prospectivity index for 85–90°S. Variables are normalized to 0–1 using physically meaningful bounds and combined with weights prioritizing hydrogen and thermal stability. The product is an exploration ranking, not a calibrated probability of ice. We then evaluate a testable depositional hypothesis: “tumultuoites,” defined here as heterogeneous volatile-bearing regolith deposits formed by rapid impact-related vapor-particle transport, mixing, condensation, freezing, and mass movement within thermally stable cold traps. The hypothesis predicts strong lateral and vertical variability, including localized ice-rich lenses or aggregates embedded in lower-grade regolith and possible spatial discordance among hydrogen, thermal, and radar signatures. These predictions can be tested by rover transects, neutron prospecting, repeated shallow drilling, spectroscopy, mass spectrometry, and thermal measurements. The approach reframes lunar polar resource assessment from a search for average ice abundance toward evaluation of resource geometry, heterogeneity, and extractability.
ER -