A protocol for calibrating basal melt rates in the ISMIP7 Antarctic ice sheet projections
Abstract
Ocean-driven melting at the base of the floating ice shelves of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important driver of current and future ice losses. Ocean models that resolve sub-shelf melt rates at sufficient resolution are too expensive to run in large ensembles or for multi-centennial projections. Instead, ice-sheet models use simple modules to infer sub-shelf melt rates based on far-field ocean properties. However, there is no consensus on the optimal set of parameters for these modules. Here, we present a protocol for ice-ocean interactions in ISMIP7 Antarctic Ice Sheet projections. We describe (1)~how CMIP model datasets are processed to be used in melt modules, (2)~how parameters in melt modules can be selected to be physically constrained by oceanographic knowledge, (3)~the rationales for a range of datasets that span possible evolution of the Southern Ocean between 1950 and 2025, (4)~design for a melt Module Intercomparison Project (meltMIP) that will allow us to better assess uncertainty in sea level projections related to melt modules. Finally, we summarise lessons from ISMIP7 and potential research directions towards the next generation of ice-ocean interaction modelling.
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BibTeX
@misc{reese2026protocol,
title = {{A protocol for calibrating basal melt rates in the ISMIP7 Antarctic ice sheet projections}},
author = {Ronja Reese and Nicolas Jourdain and Xylar Asay-Davis and Clara Burgard and Erwin Lambert and Yoshihiro Nakayama and Paul Holland and Kaitlin Naughten and Ralph Timmermann and Pierre Dutrieux and Shenjie Zhou and Golsa Talebigheshlaghi and Yanmei Tian},
howpublished = {HAL},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.5194/egusphere-2026-5337},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05828947v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A protocol for calibrating basal melt rates in the ISMIP7 Antarctic ice sheet projections
AU - Ronja Reese
AU - Nicolas Jourdain
AU - Xylar Asay-Davis
AU - Clara Burgard
AU - Erwin Lambert
AU - Yoshihiro Nakayama
AU - Paul Holland
AU - Kaitlin Naughten
AU - Ralph Timmermann
AU - Pierre Dutrieux
AU - Shenjie Zhou
AU - Golsa Talebigheshlaghi
AU - Yanmei Tian
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/22
PB - HAL
DO - 10.5194/egusphere-2026-5337
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05828947v1
AB - Ocean-driven melting at the base of the floating ice shelves of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important driver of current and future ice losses. Ocean models that resolve sub-shelf melt rates at sufficient resolution are too expensive to run in large ensembles or for multi-centennial projections. Instead, ice-sheet models use simple modules to infer sub-shelf melt rates based on far-field ocean properties. However, there is no consensus on the optimal set of parameters for these modules. Here, we present a protocol for ice-ocean interactions in ISMIP7 Antarctic Ice Sheet projections. We describe (1)~how CMIP model datasets are processed to be used in melt modules, (2)~how parameters in melt modules can be selected to be physically constrained by oceanographic knowledge, (3)~the rationales for a range of datasets that span possible evolution of the Southern Ocean between 1950 and 2025, (4)~design for a melt Module Intercomparison Project (meltMIP) that will allow us to better assess uncertainty in sea level projections related to melt modules. Finally, we summarise lessons from ISMIP7 and potential research directions towards the next generation of ice-ocean interaction modelling.
ER -