From population trends to biodiversity changes: synthesizing multi-species signals of collapse
Abstract
Taking the pulse of biodiversity is no small feat, and abundance time series are some of the most valuable data we have to measure change. Biodiversity changes are often complex, with some species declining while others grow, leading to a reorganisation of the network of interactions between species. The infamous decline of Atlantic cod in the Newfoundland shelf groundfish community between 1981 and 2013 is an example of such complexity. Here, we develop a new approach to track the multispecies signals before and after the cod decline, offering a community-oriented alternative to species abundance indicators like the Living Planet Index. We derive theory-based indicators and build a model to quantify the short-term stability and long-term reorganisation of communities with an explicit estimation of uncertainty. These indicators together reveal how severe declines in dominant species like Atlantic cod, combined with community-wide biomass changes, generated periods of instability and recovery that reshuffled the community more profoundly than previously thought. We find that the community was already facing reorganisation before the collapse and only recently recovered towards a desired state. By grounding indicators in ecological theory, we are better equipped to understand the process, and not just the pattern, of change.
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BibTeX
@misc{hebert2026from,
title = {{From population trends to biodiversity changes: synthesizing multi-species signals of collapse}},
author = {Katherine Hébert and Alexandre Fuster-Calvo and Camille Levesque and Dominique Gravel},
howpublished = {EcoEvoRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.32942/x2x97r},
url = {https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/14757/},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - From population trends to biodiversity changes: synthesizing multi-species signals of collapse
AU - Katherine Hébert
AU - Alexandre Fuster-Calvo
AU - Camille Levesque
AU - Dominique Gravel
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/05
PB - EcoEvoRxiv
DO - 10.32942/x2x97r
UR - https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/14757/
AB - Taking the pulse of biodiversity is no small feat, and abundance time series are some of the most valuable data we have to measure change. Biodiversity changes are often complex, with some species declining while others grow, leading to a reorganisation of the network of interactions between species. The infamous decline of Atlantic cod in the Newfoundland shelf groundfish community between 1981 and 2013 is an example of such complexity. Here, we develop a new approach to track the multispecies signals before and after the cod decline, offering a community-oriented alternative to species abundance indicators like the Living Planet Index. We derive theory-based indicators and build a model to quantify the short-term stability and long-term reorganisation of communities with an explicit estimation of uncertainty. These indicators together reveal how severe declines in dominant species like Atlantic cod, combined with community-wide biomass changes, generated periods of instability and recovery that reshuffled the community more profoundly than previously thought. We find that the community was already facing reorganisation before the collapse and only recently recovered towards a desired state. By grounding indicators in ecological theory, we are better equipped to understand the process, and not just the pattern, of change.
ER -