Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice
4 affiliations
- 1Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
- 2Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91109, USA
- 3Center for Computing Research, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA
- 4Quantitative Modeling and Software Engineering Department, Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA 94550, USA
Abstract
We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Our parameter sensitivity experiments reveal only moderate sensitivity to the value of the sub-shelf melt parameter, ranging from the 5th to 95th percentile values. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law and vice versa. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments indicate a modest sensitivity to the choice of stress balance approximation and a very strong sensitivity to thermomechanical coupling versus an uncoupled configuration. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters. We hypothesize that initial condition uncertainty could account for much of the inter-model spread in the ISMIP6 ensembles.
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BibTeX
@article{hillebrand2026evolution,
title = {{Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice}},
author = {Trevor R. Hillebrand and Matthew J. Hoffman and Holly Kyeore Han and Mauro Perego and Alexander O. Hager and Andrew Nolan and Xylar Asay‐Davis and Stephen F. Price and Jerry E. Watkins and Max Carlson},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice
AU - Trevor R. Hillebrand
AU - Matthew J. Hoffman
AU - Holly Kyeore Han
AU - Mauro Perego
AU - Alexander O. Hager
AU - Andrew Nolan
AU - Xylar Asay‐Davis
AU - Stephen F. Price
AU - Jerry E. Watkins
AU - Max Carlson
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/24
JO - The Cryosphere
DO - 10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026
UR - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4061-2026
AB - We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Our parameter sensitivity experiments reveal only moderate sensitivity to the value of the sub-shelf melt parameter, ranging from the 5th to 95th percentile values. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law and vice versa. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments indicate a modest sensitivity to the choice of stress balance approximation and a very strong sensitivity to thermomechanical coupling versus an uncoupled configuration. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters. We hypothesize that initial condition uncertainty could account for much of the inter-model spread in the ISMIP6 ensembles.
SN - 1994-0416
SN - 1994-0424
ER -