Dynamic stability and resilience of water conservation in the three-river headwaters region: Trajectory differentiation and causal mechanisms
6 affiliations
- 1Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
- 2Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China; Corresponding authors.
- 3Personnel Department, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China; Corresponding authors.
- 4School of Geography and Tourism, Huizhou University, Huizhou 516007, China
- 5Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China; Yunnan Provincial International Joint Laboratory for Resources and Security around the Indian Ocean, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
- 6Yunnan International Joint Laboratory of Resource and Security in the Indian Ocean Region, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
Abstract
Water conservation is a key ecosystem service of the Three-River Source region, the core area of the “Asian Water Tower”. Current studies on water conservation in alpine regions predominantly focus on static spatial patterns and overall driving analyses, while lacking systematic exploration of multi-scale evolutionary characteristics, dynamic trajectory classification, and differential mechanisms of ecological resilience under dry-wet disturbances. To address these research gaps, this study innovatively constructs a coupled integrated framework of “spatiotemporal quantification–trajectory diagnosis–resilience assessment–typed causal identification”. By integrating wavelet periodic analysis, dynamic trajectory recognition, multi-dimensional resilience quantification, and the optimized GPC causal model, this framework overcomes the limitations of traditional static and homogeneous research, and systematically reveals the dynamic evolution, resilience differentiation, and differentiated driving mechanisms of water conservation in the Three-River Source region from 1990 to 2020. The results indicate that water conservation in the study area exhibits multi-scale fluctuation characteristics with a dominant 22-year low-frequency oscillation and a secondary 5-year periodic variation, presenting a long-term spatial agglomeration pattern of “high in the south and low in the north”. Trajectory statistics show that the neutral trajectory accounts for the largest proportion (60.0%), followed by the positive trajectory (29.8%) and the negative trajectory (10.2%). Specifically, the positive linear trajectory possesses the highest comprehensive resilience, whereas the positive and negative step trajectories show the weakest resilience. This indicates that gradual improvement contributes to the accumulation of ecological resilience, while abrupt succession tends to trigger system vulnerability. Significant trajectory differentiation exists in driving mechanisms: stable areas are constrained by the coupled effects of topography, soil, and climatic natural background factors; improved areas are synergistically driven by climatic humidification and underlying surface regulation; degraded and mutated areas are mainly characterized by eco-hydrological decoupling, combined with local human disturbances that induce degradation risks. The study demonstrates that the water conservation capacity of the Three-River Source region is generally stable, but local areas face potential threshold degradation risks. This research provides significant theoretical and practical implications for ecological conservation and refined water resource management in the Three-River Source National Park.
Related
- Retention forestry practices in India for biodiversity conservation, climate resilience, and sustainable forest management across diverse forest zones
- Multidimensional spatiotemporal differentiation and driving mechanisms of soil erosion in a mountainous small watershed: an ST-TransUNet-R framework
- Diurnally asymmetric warming and hydroclimatic stress structure alpine ecosystem vulnerability in the Three-River headwaters region
- Migration Mechanisms and Spatial Differentiation of Elements in Coal under Stress Action
- Research on the evolution and driving mechanisms of watershed water resource resilience under multi-factor interactions: A case study of the Shiyang River Basin
BibTeX
@article{jin2026dynamic,
title = {{Dynamic stability and resilience of water conservation in the three-river headwaters region: Trajectory differentiation and causal mechanisms}},
author = {Ruhan Jin and Shuangyun Peng and Xue Ding and Zhiqiang Lin and Erlin Jin and Ruidan Jing and Fapeng Cai and Weihang Wang and Xianchun Pan},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115511},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115511},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Dynamic stability and resilience of water conservation in the three-river headwaters region: Trajectory differentiation and causal mechanisms
AU - Ruhan Jin
AU - Shuangyun Peng
AU - Xue Ding
AU - Zhiqiang Lin
AU - Erlin Jin
AU - Ruidan Jing
AU - Fapeng Cai
AU - Weihang Wang
AU - Xianchun Pan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115511
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115511
AB - Water conservation is a key ecosystem service of the Three-River Source region, the core area of the “Asian Water Tower”. Current studies on water conservation in alpine regions predominantly focus on static spatial patterns and overall driving analyses, while lacking systematic exploration of multi-scale evolutionary characteristics, dynamic trajectory classification, and differential mechanisms of ecological resilience under dry-wet disturbances. To address these research gaps, this study innovatively constructs a coupled integrated framework of “spatiotemporal quantification–trajectory diagnosis–resilience assessment–typed causal identification”. By integrating wavelet periodic analysis, dynamic trajectory recognition, multi-dimensional resilience quantification, and the optimized GPC causal model, this framework overcomes the limitations of traditional static and homogeneous research, and systematically reveals the dynamic evolution, resilience differentiation, and differentiated driving mechanisms of water conservation in the Three-River Source region from 1990 to 2020. The results indicate that water conservation in the study area exhibits multi-scale fluctuation characteristics with a dominant 22-year low-frequency oscillation and a secondary 5-year periodic variation, presenting a long-term spatial agglomeration pattern of “high in the south and low in the north”. Trajectory statistics show that the neutral trajectory accounts for the largest proportion (60.0%), followed by the positive trajectory (29.8%) and the negative trajectory (10.2%). Specifically, the positive linear trajectory possesses the highest comprehensive resilience, whereas the positive and negative step trajectories show the weakest resilience. This indicates that gradual improvement contributes to the accumulation of ecological resilience, while abrupt succession tends to trigger system vulnerability. Significant trajectory differentiation exists in driving mechanisms: stable areas are constrained by the coupled effects of topography, soil, and climatic natural background factors; improved areas are synergistically driven by climatic humidification and underlying surface regulation; degraded and mutated areas are mainly characterized by eco-hydrological decoupling, combined with local human disturbances that induce degradation risks. The study demonstrates that the water conservation capacity of the Three-River Source region is generally stable, but local areas face potential threshold degradation risks. This research provides significant theoretical and practical implications for ecological conservation and refined water resource management in the Three-River Source National Park.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -