MODEL ADOPTION #4602: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.7% — E8 Intelligence Research
- 1Independent Researcher, United Kingdom
Abstract
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the "min confirmations ≥6" filter is a timing delay, not a geometric edge. E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic already encodes confirmation thresholds; adding a fixed count of 6 is arbitrary and not derived from cycle harmonics. The +4.1pp gain is within noise (n=914, p≈0.08), and the filter only removes unresolved trades in the live window — it does not improve closed-trade quality. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain would be ≤1pp after slippage and missed entries on fast pairs (USDJPY, GBPUSD). Profit impact negative due to 20–30% frequency reduction without compensating edge. RISK: Delayed entries on momentum breakouts cause worse fills; survivorship bias in backtest (losing trades that would have confirmed later are excluded); filter conflicts with E8's real-time rhythm — it would lag the Gods-Clock phase, degrading FADE polarity timing. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 90-day replay-bench with exact tick data, comparing min-co
Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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BibTeX
@misc{caldin2026model,
title = {{MODEL ADOPTION #4602: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.7% — E8 Intelligence Research}},
author = {Andrew Stewart Caldin},
howpublished = {Zenodo},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23587210},
url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23587210},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - MODEL ADOPTION #4602: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 35.7% — E8 Intelligence Research
AU - Andrew Stewart Caldin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
PB - Zenodo
DO - 10.5281/zenodo.23587210
UR - https://zenodo.org/records/23587210
AB - DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the "min confirmations ≥6" filter is a timing delay, not a geometric edge. E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic already encodes confirmation thresholds; adding a fixed count of 6 is arbitrary and not derived from cycle harmonics. The +4.1pp gain is within noise (n=914, p≈0.08), and the filter only removes unresolved trades in the live window — it does not improve closed-trade quality. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain would be ≤1pp after slippage and missed entries on fast pairs (USDJPY, GBPUSD). Profit impact negative due to 20–30% frequency reduction without compensating edge. RISK: Delayed entries on momentum breakouts cause worse fills; survivorship bias in backtest (losing trades that would have confirmed later are excluded); filter conflicts with E8's real-time rhythm — it would lag the Gods-Clock phase, degrading FADE polarity timing. TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 90-day replay-bench with exact tick data, comparing min-co Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
ER -