Estimation of Adult Census Size From Close‐Kin Dyads in the Malaria Mosquito Anopheles gambiae
5 affiliations
- 1Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health University of Notre Dame Notre Dame Indiana USA
- 2Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences Imperial College London, Silwood Park Ascot UK
- 3CDC Foundation assigned to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria, Entomology Branch Atlanta Georgia USA
- 4Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria Entomology Branch Atlanta Georgia USA
- 5Entomology Division Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) Entebbe Uganda
Abstract
Accurate estimates of adult mosquito abundance are central to the design and evaluation of vector control strategies, yet they are difficult to obtain from natural populations. Conventional mark‐recapture methods for estimating adult mosquito census size pose logistical and other challenges. A recently developed close‐kin mark‐recapture (CKMR) approach is a promising alternative. However, application of CKMR has been largely confined to long‐lived vertebrates. Validation on empirical data from short‐lived, highly fecund insects is lacking. Here, we apply CKMR to a natural population of Anopheles gambiae, the primary African malaria mosquito, sampled from a small island in Lake Victoria, Uganda. Using a high‐diversity amplicon panel of genome‐wide markers, we genotyped 714 adult mosquitoes collected over a 20‐day period. We classified pairs to close‐kin categories by implementing probabilistic latent‐kinship estimation rather than using a deterministic threshold‐based framework. We observe numerous full‐sibling pairs but no parent‐offspring pairs, a pattern consistent with extreme variance in reproductive success owing to frequent failure of mosquito egg clutches to produce adults. Building on existing CKMR theory tailored to mosquito life history, we fit an extended model that included the possibility of clutch failure. By incorporating probabilities of both parent‐offspring and full‐sibling relationships, we estimate an adult female census size of 26,887 (95% credible interval: 6979–146,011), and a clutch failure probability of 97.6% (CrI: 91.3%–99.6%). We use these estimates to calculate the predicted variance in reproductive success and effective population size. Through individual‐based simulations we confirm our estimates and the necessity of modeling reproductive variance to explain observed kinship patterns. Our results demonstrate that CKMR can be applied successfully to mosquitoes, provided that appropriate adjustments are made to account for their natural history.
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BibTeX
@article{lerch2026estimation,
title = {{Estimation of Adult Census Size From Close‐Kin Dyads in the Malaria Mosquito Anopheles gambiae}},
author = {Anita Lerch and Scott T. Small and Tin‐Yu J. Hui and Priscila Bascuñán and Ellen M. Dotson and Martin Lukindu and Krystal Birungi and Jonathan K. Kayondo and Austin Burt and T. Alex Perkins and Nora J. Besansky},
journal = {Evolutionary Applications},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1111/eva.70322},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.70322},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Estimation of Adult Census Size From Close‐Kin Dyads in the Malaria Mosquito Anopheles gambiae
AU - Anita Lerch
AU - Scott T. Small
AU - Tin‐Yu J. Hui
AU - Priscila Bascuñán
AU - Ellen M. Dotson
AU - Martin Lukindu
AU - Krystal Birungi
AU - Jonathan K. Kayondo
AU - Austin Burt
AU - T. Alex Perkins
AU - Nora J. Besansky
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/28
JO - Evolutionary Applications
DO - 10.1111/eva.70322
UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.70322
AB - Accurate estimates of adult mosquito abundance are central to the design and evaluation of vector control strategies, yet they are difficult to obtain from natural populations. Conventional mark‐recapture methods for estimating adult mosquito census size pose logistical and other challenges. A recently developed close‐kin mark‐recapture (CKMR) approach is a promising alternative. However, application of CKMR has been largely confined to long‐lived vertebrates. Validation on empirical data from short‐lived, highly fecund insects is lacking. Here, we apply CKMR to a natural population of Anopheles gambiae, the primary African malaria mosquito, sampled from a small island in Lake Victoria, Uganda. Using a high‐diversity amplicon panel of genome‐wide markers, we genotyped 714 adult mosquitoes collected over a 20‐day period. We classified pairs to close‐kin categories by implementing probabilistic latent‐kinship estimation rather than using a deterministic threshold‐based framework. We observe numerous full‐sibling pairs but no parent‐offspring pairs, a pattern consistent with extreme variance in reproductive success owing to frequent failure of mosquito egg clutches to produce adults. Building on existing CKMR theory tailored to mosquito life history, we fit an extended model that included the possibility of clutch failure. By incorporating probabilities of both parent‐offspring and full‐sibling relationships, we estimate an adult female census size of 26,887 (95% credible interval: 6979–146,011), and a clutch failure probability of 97.6% (CrI: 91.3%–99.6%). We use these estimates to calculate the predicted variance in reproductive success and effective population size. Through individual‐based simulations we confirm our estimates and the necessity of modeling reproductive variance to explain observed kinship patterns. Our results demonstrate that CKMR can be applied successfully to mosquitoes, provided that appropriate adjustments are made to account for their natural history.
SN - 1752-4571
ER -