Peer-reviewedCC BYGlobal change biology
Carbon Accumulation in Tropical Dry Forests and Savannas Despite Widespread Land-Cover Change, Revealed by Radar Remote Sensing.
40 affiliations
- 1School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
- 2Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
- 3Carrera de Ingeniería Forestal, Universidad Nacional de Loja, Loja, Ecuador.
- 4Departamento de Botânica, Centro de Biociências, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.
- 5CSIR-Forestry Research Institute of Ghana, Kumasi, Ghana.
- 6Instituto de Investigaciones Forestales de la Amazonía, Universidad Autónoma del Beni José Ballivián (IIFA-UAB), Bolivia.
- 7Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno (UAGRM), Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia.
- 8School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
- 9Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
- 10Jardim Botânico Do Rio de Janeiro (JBRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
- 11Departamento de Biologia (Aposentado) da Universidade Federal do Piauí, Brazil.
- 12Department of Biology, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
- 13Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique et Technologique, Institut de L'environnement et de Recherches Agricoles, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
- 14Programa de Pós‑Graduação em Sistemática, Uso e Conservação da Biodiversidade (PPGSis), Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC), Fortaleza, CE, Brazil.
- 15Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (UNEMAT), Nova Xavantina, Mato Grosso, Brazil.
- 16Biodiversity Research Centre, Namibia University of Science and Technology, Windhoek, Namibia.
- 17Ongava Research Centre, Namibia.
- 18Institute of Biogeosciences, IBG2: Plant Sciences, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany.
- 19Faculty of Communication and Environment, Hochschule Rhein-Waal, Kamp-Lintfort, Germany.
- 20Namibia University of Science and Technology, Windhoek, Namibia.
- 21Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Filosofia, Ciências e Letras de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo (FFCLRP-USP), Ribeirão Preto, Brazil.
- 22Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Belém, Brazil.
- 23Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
- 24Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Hatfield, South Africa.
- 25South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON), South Africa.
- 26Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
- 27Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Surrey, UK.
- 28School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
- 29Instituto de Ecología Regional, Universidad Nacional de Tucumán- CONICET, Argentina.
- 30Universidade Mandume Ya Ndemufayo, Lubango, Angola.
- 31Herbário do Lubango, ISCED‑Huíla (Instituto Superior de Ciências da Educação da Huíla), Lubango, Angola.
- 32cE3c - Centro de Ecologia, Evolução e Alterações Ambientais, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Lisboa, Portugal.
- 33Santa Cruz, Asociación Boliviana Para la Conservación de Las Aves, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia.
- 34CIFOR-ICRAF, Lusaka, Zambia.
- 35Airbus Defence and Space, Surrey Research Park, Guildford, UK.
- 36Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, and College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.
- 37Department of Forestry & Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Natural Resources & Environment, University for Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana.
- 38Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), Nairobi, Kenya.
- 39Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, Missouri, USA.
- 40Department of Geography, University College London, UK.
Abstract
Accurate mapping of woody biomass and its temporal change is critical for understanding the global carbon balance, informing restoration and supporting evidence-based policy on climate mitigation and livelihoods. The vegetation of the dry tropics, comprised largely of dry forests and savannas, holds substantial woody carbon stocks, but both stocks and change over time remain uncertain. Where Earth Observation (EO) data have been used to estimate change over time, different products give conflicting results on the direction, magnitude and location of change. We present pan-dry-tropical maps of aboveground carbon density (AGCD) and AGCD change at 100 m resolution for the years 2015-2024, developed using ALOS ScanSAR satellite radar observations calibrated with in situ measurements (n = 237). These maps suggest an aboveground woody carbon pool (AGC) in the dry tropics of 25.3 ± 2.0 PgC, ~13.0% of global AGC. Net AGC has increased by 0.43 ± 0.07 PgC yr⁻¹, ~20.0% of the global net land sink. The overall net increase (0.43 PgC yr⁻¹) is comprised of gross losses from deforestation and degradation (0.27 ± 0.05 PgC yr⁻¹) and gains due to densification and extensification of 0.59 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹, with the balance accounted for by small changes (change < 20% of AGCD; 0.11 PgC yr⁻¹). Losses are equally split between degradation and deforestation, while gains are divided roughly 2:1 between the densification of woody ecosystems and expansion into previously grass-dominated areas. These new maps, created with a dry-tropics-specific EO method, highlight the importance of tropical dry forests and savannas in the global carbon cycle. The prominent role of degradation-related losses suggests that climate change mitigation will need to focus much more on reducing losses from overharvesting than at present. The widespread increases in carbon density and the increase in tree biomass into open systems present major challenges for biodiversity conservation, restoration and livelihoods.
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BibTeX
@article{harrison2026carbon,
title = {{Carbon Accumulation in Tropical Dry Forests and Savannas Despite Widespread Land-Cover Change, Revealed by Radar Remote Sensing.}},
author = {Sam B Harrison and John L Godlee and David T Milodowski and Reza Asiyabi and Penelope J Mograbi and Zhofre Aguirre and Jarcilene S Almeida and George K D Ametsitsi and Alejandro Araujo-Murakami and Sally Archibald and Luzmila Arroyo Padilla and Lorena Benitez and Samuel J Bowers and Thomas K Brade and Domingos Cardoso and João M B Carreiras and Antonio Alberto Jorge Farias Castro and Duncan Chalo and Halidou Compaore and Isabela S C da Costa and Ítalo Antônio Cotta Coutinho and Eder C das Neves and Vera De Cauwer and Tony César de Sousa Oliveira and Hermane Diesse and Tomas F Domingues and Fernando Elias and Camila Laís Farrapo and G Feig and Ted R Feldpausch and Moabe F Fernandes and David R Galbraith and Nestor I Gasparri and Emanuel Gloor and Francisco Maiato and Tatenda Gotore and Karollyne S Guimarães and Gloria Gutierrez-Sibauty and Rhett D Harrison and Thomas P Higginbottom and Francoise Yoko Ishida and Hamza Issifu and John Ngugi Kigomo and Timothy J Killeen and Aurora Levesley and Simon L Lewis and José Romualdo S Lima and Dante Loto and Elisvan Mariano Sousa and Beatriz S Marimon and Ben Hur Marimon Junior and Mário Marcos do Espírito Santo and Antonia M L Marques and Matheus Santos Martins and Collins W Masinde and Musingo Tito E Mbuvi and Iain M McNicol and Karina Melgaço and B Mogonong and Peter W Moonlight},
journal = {Global change biology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1111/gcb.71141},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42897931},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Carbon Accumulation in Tropical Dry Forests and Savannas Despite Widespread Land-Cover Change, Revealed by Radar Remote Sensing.
AU - Sam B Harrison
AU - John L Godlee
AU - David T Milodowski
AU - Reza Asiyabi
AU - Penelope J Mograbi
AU - Zhofre Aguirre
AU - Jarcilene S Almeida
AU - George K D Ametsitsi
AU - Alejandro Araujo-Murakami
AU - Sally Archibald
AU - Luzmila Arroyo Padilla
AU - Lorena Benitez
AU - Samuel J Bowers
AU - Thomas K Brade
AU - Domingos Cardoso
AU - João M B Carreiras
AU - Antonio Alberto Jorge Farias Castro
AU - Duncan Chalo
AU - Halidou Compaore
AU - Isabela S C da Costa
AU - Ítalo Antônio Cotta Coutinho
AU - Eder C das Neves
AU - Vera De Cauwer
AU - Tony César de Sousa Oliveira
AU - Hermane Diesse
AU - Tomas F Domingues
AU - Fernando Elias
AU - Camila Laís Farrapo
AU - G Feig
AU - Ted R Feldpausch
AU - Moabe F Fernandes
AU - David R Galbraith
AU - Nestor I Gasparri
AU - Emanuel Gloor
AU - Francisco Maiato
AU - Tatenda Gotore
AU - Karollyne S Guimarães
AU - Gloria Gutierrez-Sibauty
AU - Rhett D Harrison
AU - Thomas P Higginbottom
AU - Francoise Yoko Ishida
AU - Hamza Issifu
AU - John Ngugi Kigomo
AU - Timothy J Killeen
AU - Aurora Levesley
AU - Simon L Lewis
AU - José Romualdo S Lima
AU - Dante Loto
AU - Elisvan Mariano Sousa
AU - Beatriz S Marimon
AU - Ben Hur Marimon Junior
AU - Mário Marcos do Espírito Santo
AU - Antonia M L Marques
AU - Matheus Santos Martins
AU - Collins W Masinde
AU - Musingo Tito E Mbuvi
AU - Iain M McNicol
AU - Karina Melgaço
AU - B Mogonong
AU - Peter W Moonlight
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - Global change biology
DO - 10.1111/gcb.71141
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42897931
AB - Accurate mapping of woody biomass and its temporal change is critical for understanding the global carbon balance, informing restoration and supporting evidence-based policy on climate mitigation and livelihoods. The vegetation of the dry tropics, comprised largely of dry forests and savannas, holds substantial woody carbon stocks, but both stocks and change over time remain uncertain. Where Earth Observation (EO) data have been used to estimate change over time, different products give conflicting results on the direction, magnitude and location of change. We present pan-dry-tropical maps of aboveground carbon density (AGCD) and AGCD change at 100 m resolution for the years 2015-2024, developed using ALOS ScanSAR satellite radar observations calibrated with in situ measurements (n = 237). These maps suggest an aboveground woody carbon pool (AGC) in the dry tropics of 25.3 ± 2.0 PgC, ~13.0% of global AGC. Net AGC has increased by 0.43 ± 0.07 PgC yr⁻¹, ~20.0% of the global net land sink. The overall net increase (0.43 PgC yr⁻¹) is comprised of gross losses from deforestation and degradation (0.27 ± 0.05 PgC yr⁻¹) and gains due to densification and extensification of 0.59 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹, with the balance accounted for by small changes (change < 20% of AGCD; 0.11 PgC yr⁻¹). Losses are equally split between degradation and deforestation, while gains are divided roughly 2:1 between the densification of woody ecosystems and expansion into previously grass-dominated areas. These new maps, created with a dry-tropics-specific EO method, highlight the importance of tropical dry forests and savannas in the global carbon cycle. The prominent role of degradation-related losses suggests that climate change mitigation will need to focus much more on reducing losses from overharvesting than at present. The widespread increases in carbon density and the increase in tree biomass into open systems present major challenges for biodiversity conservation, restoration and livelihoods.
SN - 1354-1013
SN - 1365-2486
ER -